Sunday, August 28, 2016

Mythbusting 101: Organic Farming > Conventional Agriculture

Mythbusting 101: Organic Farming > Conventional Agriculture
By Christie Wilcox on July 18, 2011


People believe a lot of things that we have little to no evidence for, like that vikings wore horned helmets or that you can see the Great Wall of China from space. One of the things I like to do on my blogs is bust commonly held myths that I think matter. For example, I get really annoyed when I hear someone say sharks don't get cancer (I'll save that rant for another day). From now onward, posts that attack conventionally believed untruths will fall under a series I'm going to call "Mythbusting 101."

Ten years ago, Certified Organic didn't exist in the United States. Yet in 2010, a mere eight years after USDA's regulations officially went into effect, organic foods and beverages made $26.7 billion. In the past year or two, certified organic sales have jumped toabout $52 billion worldwide despite the fact that organic foods cost up to three times as much as those produced by conventional methods. More and more, people are shelling out their hard-earned cash for what they believe are the best foods available. Imagine, people say: you can improve your nutrition while helping save the planet from the evils of conventional agriculture - a completewin-win. And who wouldn't buy organic, when it just sounds so good?

Here's the thing: there are a lot of myths out there about organic foods, and a lot of propaganda supporting methods that are rarely understood. It's like your mother used to say: just because everyone is jumping off a bridge doesn't mean you should do it, too. Now, before I get yelled at too much, let me state unequivocally that I'm not saying organic farming is bad - far from it. There are some definite upsides and benefits that come from many organic farming methods. For example, the efforts of organic farmers to move away from monocultures, where crops are farmed in single-species plots, are fantastic; crop rotations and mixed planting are much better for the soil and environment. My goal in this post isn't to bash organic farms, instead, it's to bust the worst of the myths that surround them so that everyone can judge organic farming based on facts. In particular, there are four myths thrown around like they're real that just drive me crazy.

Myth #1: Organic Farms Don't Use Pesticides

When the Soil Association, a major organic accreditation body in the UK, asked consumers why they buy organic food, 95% of them said their top reason was to avoid pesticides. They, like many people, believe that organic farming involves little to no pesticide use. I hate to burst the bubble, but that's simply not true. Organic farming, just like other forms of agriculture, still uses pesticides and fungicides to prevent critters from destroying their crops. Confused?

So was I, when I first learned this from a guy I was dating. His family owns a farm in rural Ohio. He was grumbling about how everyone praised the local organic farms for being so environmentally-conscientious, even though they sprayed their crops with pesticides all the time while his family farm got no credit for being pesticide-free (they're not organic because they use a non-organic herbicide once a year). I didn't believe him at first, so I looked into it: turns out that there are over 20 chemicals commonly used in the growing and processing of organic crops that are approved by the US Organic Standards. And, shockingly, the actual volume usage of pesticides on organic farms is not recorded by the government. Why the government isn't keeping watch on organic pesticide and fungicide use is a damn good question, especially considering that many organic pesticides that are also used by conventional farmers are used more intensively than synthetic ones due to their lower levels of effectiveness. According to theNational Center for Food and Agricultural Policy, the top two organic fungicides, copper and sulfur, were used at a rate of 4 and 34 pounds per acre in 1971 1. In contrast, the synthetic fungicides only required a rate of 1.6 lbs per acre, less than half the amount of the organic alternatives.

The sad truth is, factory farming is factory farming, whether its organic or conventional. Many large organic farms use pesticides liberally. They're organic by certification, but you'd never know it if you saw their farming practices. As Michael Pollan, best-selling book author and organic supporter, said in an interview with Organic Gardening,

"They're organic by the letter, not organic in spirit... if most organic consumers went to those places, they would feel they were getting ripped off."

What makes organic farming different, then? It's not the use of pesticides, it's the origin of the pesticides used. Organic pesticides are those that are derived from natural sources and processed lightly if at all before use. This is different than the current pesticides used by conventional agriculture, which are generally synthetic. It has been assumed for years that pesticides that occur naturally (in certain plants, for example) are somehow better for us and the environment than those that have been created by man. As more research is done into their toxicity, however, this simply isn't true, either. Many natural pesticides have been found to be potential - or serious - health risks.2

Take the example of Rotenone. Rotenone was widely used in the US as an organic pesticide for decades 3. Because it is natural in origin, occurring in the roots and stems of a small number of subtropical plants, it was considered "safe" as well as "organic". However, research has shown that rotenone is highly dangerous because it kills by attacking mitochondria, the energy powerhouses of all living cells. Research found that exposure to rotenone caused Parkinson's Disease-like symptoms in rats 4, and had the potential to kill many species, including humans. Rotenone's use as a pesticide has already been discontinued in the US as of 2005 due to health concerns***, but shockingly, it's still poured into our waters every year by fisheries management officials as a piscicide to remove unwanted fish species.

The point I'm driving home here is that just because something is natural doesn't make it non-toxic or safe. Many bacteria, fungi and plants produce poisons, toxins and chemicals that you definitely wouldn't want sprayed on your food.

Just last year, nearly half of the pesticides that are currently approved for use by organic farmers in Europe failed to pass the European Union's safety evaluation that is required by law 5. Among the chemicals failing the test was rotenone, as it had yet to be banned in Europe. Furthermore, just over 1% of organic foodstuffs produced in 2007 and tested by the European Food Safety Authority were found to contain pesticide levels above the legal maximum levels - and these are of pesticides that are not organic 6. Similarly, when Consumer Reports purchased a thousand pounds of tomatoes, peaches, green bell peppers, and apples in five cities and tested them for more than 300 synthetic pesticides, they found traces of them in 25% of the organically-labeled foods, but between all of the organic and non-organic foods tested, only one sample of each exceeded the federal limits8.

Not only are organic pesticides not safe, they might actually be worse than the ones used by the conventional agriculture industry. Canadian scientists pitted 'reduced-risk' organic and synthetic pesticides against each other in controlling a problematic pest, the soybean aphid. They found that not only were the synthetic pesticides more effective means of control, the organic pesticides were more ecologically damaging, including causing higher mortality in other, non-target species like the aphid's predators9. Of course, some organic pesticides may fare better than these ones did in similar head-to-head tests, but studies like this one reveal that the assumption that natural is better for the environment could be very dangerous.

Even if the organic food you're eating is from a farm which uses little to no pesticides at all, there is another problem: getting rid of pesticides doesn't mean your food is free from harmful things. Between 1990 and 2001, over 10,000 people fell ill due to foods contaminated with pathogens like E. coli, and many have organic foods to blame. That's because organic foods tend to have higher levels of potential pathogens. One study, for example, found E. coli in produce from almost 10% of organic farms samples, but only 2% of conventional ones10. The same study also found Salmonella only in samples from organic farms, though at a low prevalence rate. The reason for the higher pathogen prevalence is likely due to the use of manure instead of artificial fertilizers, as many pathogens are spread through fecal contamination. Conventional farms often use manure, too, but they use irradiation and a full array of non-organic anti-microbial agents as well, and without those, organic foods run a higher risk of containing something that will make a person sick.

In the end, it really depends on exactly what methods are used by crop producers. Both organic and conventional farms vary widely in this respect. Some conventional farms use no pesticides. Some organic farms spray their crops twice a month. Of course, some conventional farms spray just as frequently, if not more so, and some organic farms use no pesticides whatsoever. To really know what you're in for, it's best if you know your source, and a great way to do that is to buy locally. Talk to the person behind the crop stand, and actually ask them what their methods are if you want to be sure of what you're eating.

 

Myth #2: Organic Foods are Healthier

Some people believe that by not using manufactured chemicals or genetically modified organisms, organic farming produces more nutritious food. However, science simply cannot find any evidence that organic foods are in any way healthier than non-organic ones - and scientists have been comparing the two for over 50 years.

Just recently, an independent research project in the UK systematically reviewed the 162 articles on organic versus non-organic crops published in peer-reviewed journals between 1958 and 2008 11. These contained a total of 3558 comparisons of content of nutrients and other substances in organically and conventionally produced foods. They found absolutely no evidence for any differences in content of over 15 different nutrients including vitamin C, ?-carotene, and calcium. There were some differences, though; conventional crops had higher nitrogen levels, while organic ones had higher phosphorus and acidity - none of which factor in much to nutritional quality. Further analysis of similar studies on livestock products like meat, dairy, and eggs also found few differences in nutritional content. Organic foods did, however, have higher levels of overall fats, particularly trans fats. So if anything, the organic livestock products were found to be worse for us (though, to be fair, barely).

"This is great news for consumers. It proves that the 98% of food we consume, which is produced by technologically advanced agriculture, is equally nutritious to the less than 2% derived from what is commonly referred to as the 'organic' market," said Fredhelm Schmider, the Director General of the European Crop Protection Association said in a press release about the findings.12

Joseph D. Rosen, emeritus professor of food toxicology at Rutgers, puts it even more strongly. "Any consumers who buy organic food because they believe that it contains more healthful nutrients than conventional food are wasting their money," he writes in a comprehensive review of organic nutritional claims13.

Strong organic proponents also argue that organic food tastes better. In the same poll where 95% of UK organic consumers said they buy organic to avoid pesticides, over two-thirds of respondents said organic produce and meats taste better than non-organic ones. But when researchers had people put their mouths to the test, they found that people couldn't tell the difference between the two in blind taste tests14, 18.

So, in short, organics are not better for us and we can't tell the difference between them and non-organic foods. There may be many things that are good about organic farming, from increased biodiversity on farms to movement away from monocultures, but producing foods that are healthier and tastier simply isn't one of them.

Myth #3: Organic Farming Is Better For The Environment

As an ecologist by training, this myth bothers me the most of all three. People seem to believe they're doing the world a favor by eating organic. The simple fact is that they're not - at least the issue is not that cut and dry.

Yes, organic farming practices use less synthetic pesticides which have been found to be ecologically damaging. But factory organic farms use their own barrage of chemicals that are still ecologically damaging, and refuse to endorse technologies that might reduce or eliminate the use of these all together. Take, for example, organic farming's adamant stance against genetically modified organisms (GMOs).

GMOs have the potential to up crop yields, increase nutritious value, and generally improve farming practices while reducing synthetic chemical use - which is exactly what organic farming seeks to do. As we speak, there are sweet potatoes are being engineered to be resistant to a virus that currently decimates the African harvest every year, which could feed millions in some of the poorest nations in the world15. Scientists have created carrots high in calcium to fight osteoperosis, and tomatoes high in antioxidants. Almost as important as what we can put into a plant is what we can take out; potatoes are being modified so that they do not produce high concentrations of toxic glycoalkaloids, and nuts are being engineered to lack the proteins which cause allergic reactions in most people. Perhaps even more amazingly, bananas are being engineered to produce vaccines against hepatitis B, allowing vaccination to occur where its otherwise too expensive or difficult to be administered. The benefits these plants could provide to human beings all over the planet are astronomical.

Yet organic proponents refuse to even give GMOs a chance, even to the point of hypocrisy. For example, organic farmers apply Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxin (a small insecticidal protein from soil bacteria) unabashedly across their crops every year, as they have for decades. It's one of the most widely used organic pesticides by organic farmers. Yet when genetic engineering is used to place the gene encoding the Bt toxin into a plant's genome, the resulting GM plants are vilified by the very people willing to liberally spray the exact same toxin that the gene encodes for over the exact same species of plant. Ecologically, the GMO is a far better solution, as it reduces the amount of toxin being used and thus leeching into the surrounding landscape and waterways. Other GMOs have similar goals, like making food plants flood-tolerant so occasional flooding can replace herbicide use as a means of killing weeds. If the goal is protect the environment, why not incorporate the newest technologies which help us do so?

But the real reason organic farming isn't more green than conventional is that while it might be better for local environments on the small scale, organic farms produce far less food per unit land than conventional ones. Organic farms produce around 80% that what the same size conventional farm produces16(some studies place organic yields below 50% those of conventional farms!).

Right now, roughly 800 million people suffer from hunger and malnutrition, and about 16 million of those will die from it17. If we were to switch to entirely organic farming, the number of people suffering would jump by 1.3 billion, assuming we use the same amount of land that we're using now. Unfortunately, what's far more likely is that switches to organic farming will result in the creation of new farms via the destruction of currently untouched habitats, thus plowing over the little wild habitat left for many threatened and endangered species.

Already, we have cleared more than 35% of the Earth's ice-free land surface for agriculture, an area 60 times larger than the combined area of all the world's cities and suburbs. Since the last ice age, nothing has been more disruptive to the planet's ecosystem and its inhabitants than agriculture. What will happen to what's left of our planet's wildlife habitats if we need to mow down another 20% or more of the world's ice-free land to accommodate for organic methods?

The unfortunate truth is that until organic farming can rival the production output of conventional farming, its ecological cost due to the need for space is devastating. As bad as any of the pesticides and fertilizers polluting the world's waterways from conventional agriculture are, it's a far better ecological situation than destroying those key habitats altogether. That's not to say that there's no hope for organic farming; better technology could overcome the production gap, allowing organic methods to produce on par with conventional agriculture. If that does occur, then organic agriculture becomes a lot more ecologically sustainable. On the small scale, particularly in areas where food surpluses already occur, organic farming could be beneficial, but presuming it's the end all be all of sustainable agriculture is a mistake.

Myth #4: It's all or none

The point of this piece isn't to vilify organic farming; it's merely to point out that it's not as black and white as it looks. Organic farming does have many potential upsides, and may indeed be the better way to go in the long run, but it really depends on technology and what we discover and learn in the future. Until organic farming can produce crops on par in terms of volume with conventional methods, it cannot be considered a viable option for the majority of the world. Nutritionally speaking, organic food is more like a brand name or luxury item. It's great if you can afford the higher price and want to have it, but it's not a panacea. You would improve your nutritional intake far more by eating a larger volume of fruits and vegetables than by eating organic ones instead of conventionally produced ones.

What bothers me most, however, is that both sides of the organic debate spend millions in press and advertising to attack each other instead of looking for a resolution. Organic supporters tend to vilify new technologies, while conventional supporters insist that chemicals and massive production monocultures are the only way to go. This simply strikes me as absurd. Synthetic doesn't necessarily mean bad for the environment. Just look at technological advances in creating biodegradable products; sometimes, we can use our knowledge and intelligence to create things that are both useful, cheap (enough) and ecologically responsible, as crazy as that idea may sound.

I also firmly believe that increasing the chemicals used in agriculture to support insanely over-harvested monocultures will never lead to ecological improvement. In my mind, the ideal future will merge conventional and organic methods, using GMOs and/or other new technologies to reduce pesticide use while increasing the bioavailability of soils, crop yield, nutritional quality and biodiversity in agricultural lands. New technology isn't the enemy of organic farming; it should be its strongest ally.

As far as I'm concerned, the biggest myth when it comes to organic farming is that you have to choose sides. Guess what? You don't. You can appreciate the upsides of rotating crops and how GMOs might improve output and nutrition. You, the wise and intelligent consumer, don't have to buy into either side's propaganda and polarize to one end or another. You can, instead, be somewhere along the spectrum, and encourage both ends to listen up and work together to improve our global food resources and act sustainably.

 
See more on this, in response to critiques: In the immortal words of Tom Petty: "I won't back down"

More Mythbusting 101:

Sharks will cure cancer

*** Oh, it turns out Rotenone got re-approved for organic use in 2010. See for yourself.

Regarding the use of GMOs: perhaps Andy Revkin from The New York Times says it better.

Based on the responses, I just want to make this clear: this is NOT a comprehensive comparison of organic and conventional agriculture, nor is it intended to be. That post would be miles long and far more complex. My overall belief is that there shouldn't be a dichotomy in the first place - there are a variety of methods and practices that a farmer can use, each with its pros and cons. The main point here is that something "organic" isn't intrinsically better than something that isn't, and that you have to approach all kinds of agriculture critically to achieve optimum sustainability.

Ok, and while I'm adding in notes: stop citing Bedgley et al. 2007 as evidence that organic farming produces equal yields: this study has been shown to be flawed (see my comments in the follow up post to this article), and was strongly critiqued (e.g. this response article).

 
References

National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy, National Pesticide Use Database. Available from http://www.ncfap.org (Viewed 19 Nov, 2009).

Gold, L., Slone, T., Stern, B., Manley, N., & Ames, B. (1992). Rodent carcinogens: setting priorities Science, 258 (5080), 261-265 DOI:10.1126/science.1411524

Rotenone: Resource Guide for Organic and Disease Management. Cornell University. Available at www.nysaes.cornell.edu/pp/resourceguide/mfs/11rotenone.php (Viewed 19 Nov, 2009).

Caboni, P., Sherer, T., Zhang, N., Taylor, G., Na, H., Greenamyre, J., & Casida, J. (2004). Rotenone, Deguelin, Their Metabolites, and the Rat Model of Parkinson's Disease Chemical Research in Toxicology, 17 (11), 1540-1548 DOI: 10.1021/tx049867r

EFSA 2009. Pesticides used in organic farming: some pass and some fail safety authorization. European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Available from: www.ecpa.eu (Viewed 19 Nov, 2009).

Reasoned opinion of EFSA prepared by the Pesticides Unit (PRAPeR) on the 2007 Annual Report on Pesticide Residues. EFSA Scientific Report (2009) 305, 1-106

Consumer Reports 1998. Organic produce. Consumer Reports 63(1), 12-18.

FDA Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (2000). Pesticide Program: Residue Monitoring 1999. Available at http://vm.cfsan.fda.gov (Viewed 19 Nov, 2009)

Bahlai, C., Xue, Y., McCreary, C., Schaafsma, A., & Hallett, R. (2010). Choosing Organic Pesticides over Synthetic Pesticides May Not Effectively Mitigate Environmental Risk in Soybeans PLoS ONE, 5 (6) DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0011250

Mukherjee A, Speh D, Dyck E, & Diez-Gonzalez F (2004). Preharvest evaluation of coliforms, Escherichia coli, Salmonella, and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in organic and conventional produce grown by Minnesota farmers. Journal of food protection, 67 (5), 894-900 PMID: 15151224

Dangour, A., Lock, K., Hayter, A., Aikenhead, A., Allen, E., & Uauy, R. (2010). Nutrition-related health effects of organic foods: a systematic review American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 92 (1), 203-210 DOI:10.3945/ajcn.2010.29269

EFSA 2009. Study finds no additional nutritional benefit in "organic" food. European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Available from: www.ecpa.eu (Viewed Jul 2011)

Rosen, J. (2010). A Review of the Nutrition Claims Made by Proponents of Organic Food Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety, 9(3), 270-277 DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-4337.2010.00108.x

Fillion, L., & Arazi, S. (2002). Does organic food taste better? A claim substantiation approach Nutrition & Food Science, 32 (4), 153-157 DOI:10.1108/00346650210436262

Qaim, M. The Economic Effects of Genetically Modified Orphan

Commodities: Projections for Sweetpotato in Kenya. Agricultural Economist Center for Development Research (ZEF), No. 13-1999. PDF

Mader, P. (2002). Soil Fertility and Biodiversity in Organic FarmingScience, 296 (5573), 1694-1697 DOI: 10.1126/science.1071148

Fedoroff, N. (1999). Plants and population: Is there time? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96 (11), 5903-5907 DOI:10.1073/pnas.96.11.5903

Basker, D. (2009). Comparison of taste quality between organically and conventionally grown fruits and vegetables American Journal of Alternative Agriculture, 7 (03) DOI: 10.1017/S0889189300004641

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Christie Wilcox

Christie Wilcox is a postdoctoral researcher in cellular and molecular biology at the University of Hawaii, where she studies venom. She is also a science blogger and communicator.

Nick Higgins

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Saturday, February 27, 2016

David Graeber - Bürokratie

«Jeder dritte Job ist sinnlos»

Der amerikanische Anthropologe David Graeber setzt sich in seinem neuen Buch mit der Bürokratie auseinander. Sein Befund: Vieles ist überflüssig und gehört eliminiert.

Gratulation zu Ihrer Kritik an der Bürokratie – Sie treffen einen Nerv.
Oh, haben Sie das Buch gelesen?

Ja, mit Überraschung. Eine Kritik an der ausufernden Bürokratie von einem Linken, normalerweise kommt diese Kritik von rechts.
Das hab ich auch gehört. Vergangene Woche wurde ich auf Friedrich August von Hayek hingewiesen, er soll ein früher Warner vor der ausufernden Bürokratie gewesen sein.

«Ich wurde erst nicht zum Professor promoviert, weil ich meine Zeit dafür verwendete, Bücher zu schreiben, statt sie mit administrativen Auf­gaben zu verplempern.»

Wie viel Zeit benötigt denn ein Professor der London School of Economics täglich für die Administration?
Vielleicht eine Stunde, das reicht. Ich bin hier glücklich, weil ich mein Leben so organisieren kann, dass möglichst wenig Administratives anfällt. Das war für mich an der Goldsmith University, wo ich vorher tätig war, ein Nachteil. Ich wurde dort nicht zum Professor promoviert, weil ich meine Zeit lieber dafür verwendete, Bücher zu schreiben und zu lehren, statt sie mit administrativen Auf­gaben zu verplempern.

Der administrative Anteil hat heute in fast allen Bürojobs zugenommen.
Leider, ja. Das zwingt die Leute, bei der Arbeit mehr zu verwalten, statt kreativ zu arbeiten. Es gibt viele Jobs, in denen man rund die Hälfte der Zeit damit verbringt, zu beurteilen, was man tut, statt etwas Nützliches zu tun.

Die Tools dazu wurden verfeinert und heissen heute Auditing, Benchmarking, ISO-Norm, Kostenanalyse, Qualitätsmanagement . . .
Eine Katastrophe! Man sollte das alles eliminieren, denn das meiste ist Zeitverschwendung. Vieles gehört in die Kategorie der «Bullshit-Jobs», die ich in einem Essay beschrieben habe. Viele verrichten im Bürojob heute Tätigkeiten, um den Tag zu füllen. Sie kommen mir vor wie Geschirrwäscher, bei denen der Chef vorbeikommt, wenn kein Geschirr dreckig ist. Dann machen sie irgendetwas, um beschäftigt zu wirken. Was denken Sie, wie hoch in Grossbritannien der Anteil jener ist, die ihre Arbeit für sinnlos halten?

«Es gibt viele Jobs, in denen man rund die Hälfte der Zeit damit verbringt, zu beurteilen, was man tut, statt etwas Nützliches zu tun.»

Jeder Zehnte?
Deutlich mehr. Nach einer umfassenden Untersuchung hält heute in Grossbritannien jeder Dritte seinen Job für sinnlos, weitere 19 Prozent sind sich nicht sicher, ob er für etwas nützlich ist. Ich denke, die Zweifel sind berechtigt. Wenn ich jene wegzähle, deren Tätigkeit offensichtlich etwas nutzt, Krankenpflegerinnen, Busfahrer, Reparateure – dann muss man vermuten, dass gegen 40 Prozent der übrigen Beschäftigten eine sinnlose Tätigkeit verrichten.

Die alte Form der Bürokratie hat Franz Kafka in seinem Roman «Der Prozess» beschrieben: einen langen Korridor mit geschlossenen ­Bürotüren auf beiden Seiten, die sich nur öffneten, wenn Akten hineingereicht wurden. Inzwischen ist die Verwaltung digitalisiert –und damit auch effizienter?
In der Tat war diese Hoffnung mit der Digitalisierung verbunden. Aber das Gegenteil ist eingetroffen, die Leute brauchen mehr Zeit dafür. Man hoffte ja nach dem Untergang der Sowjetunion auch, dass alles einfacher würde, die Menschen endlich weniger Schlange stehen müssten. Stattdessen nahm in Russland die Zahl der Beamten in den Neunzigerjahren um 25 Prozent zu.

 «Die Bürokratie geht von der Utopie eines perfekten Regelwerks aus, an das sich die Menschen halten. Aber die Menschen verhalten sich nicht freiwillig so.»

Sie ziehen daraus den Schluss, dass die Bürokratie auf alle Systeme übergreift?
Zweifellos. Die Bürokratie geht von der Utopie eines perfekten Regelwerks aus, an das sich die Menschen halten. Davon träumen die Bürokratien in allen Systemen. Aber die Menschen verhalten sich nicht freiwillig so, deshalb wird die Durchsetzung der Regeln mittels Repression erzwungen, erst mit Bussen, Arbeitsplatzverlust und ähnlichem – im Extremfall bis zum Gulag im Kommunismus.

Wichtigster Träger der Bürokratie ist das mittlere Management. Verrichtet es seine bürokratischen Aufgaben aus Leidenschaft, oder ist es dazu gezwungen?
Ich denke, es war gezwungen. Man fühlt sich ja elend, wenn man überzeugt ist, dass ein Grossteil der eigenen Tätigkeit sinnlos ist. Aber irgendwann wurde Bürokratie im mittleren Management dann auch zur Leidenschaft und mobilisierte Energien: Jeder wollte mehr Mitarbeiter und grössere Stäbe haben. Das lenkt wohl von der grossen Leere ab.

«Um eine sogenannte deregulierte Wirtschaft durchzusetzen, grössere Vertragsfreiheit, braucht es offenbar mehr Regulierung – das ist das Paradox.»

In London begann die grosse Deregulierung Ende der Siebzigerjahre unter Premierminister Edward Heath, danach kam Margaret Thatcher, dann der Big Bang auf dem Finanzplatz. Inzwischen ist alles wieder neu reguliert?
Es wurde nie wirklich dereguliert, es wurde bloss die regulatorische Struktur verändert. Um eine sogenannte deregulierte Wirtschaft durchzusetzen, grössere Vertragsfreiheit, braucht es offenbar mehr Regulierung – das ist das Paradox.

Je freier der Markt, desto grösser die Regulierung?
Das scheint so, ja. Wobei ich es anders sagen würde: Je freier sie sagen, dass der Markt sei, umso mehr wird reguliert. Die Wirkung kann dabei völlig unterschiedlich sein: In den USA etwa führte die Deregulierung der Telekommunikation dazu, dass es danach statt wenige grosse Oligopolisten einen regulierten Wettbewerb mittelgrosser Firmen gab. Im Finanzbereich war es genau umgekehrt: Statt ­eines regulierten Wettbewerbs zwischen mittelgrossen Firmen gibt es heute wenige grosse Oligopolisten. Deregulierung sorgt offenbar dafür, dass jene profitieren, die ihre andere Vorstellung von Regulierung durchbringen.

Seit der Finanzkrise 2008 wird der ­Bankensektor stärker reguliert. Das scheint nützlich, um eine neue Krise zu verhindern.
Das sehe ich nicht so. Wir sollten diesem Gerede von der Deregulierung nicht trauen, es war vorher und nachher viel Regulierung. Der Bankensektor lebt davon. Ein Grossteil der Gewinne, die gemacht werden, entsteht durch staatliche Regulierung. Vor der Finanzkrise habe ich eine Jahresrechnung von J.P. Morgan Chase untersucht – es zeigte sich, dass rund 60 Prozent des Gewinns aus Gebühren, Ab­gaben und Bussen stammten.

«Das Internet ist eine Realität wie die Schwerkraft, da mache ich mir keine Gedanken, ob nun die  Vor- oder Nachteile überwiegen.»

Die deutsche Reichspost galt mit ihrer ­damaligen Postzustellung bis zu sechsmal am Tag für Bürokraten aller Länder als Modell einer effizienten Organisation. Auch Lenin bewunderte sie, sah sie als Vorbild für eine revolutionäre Organisation. Aber auch der Anarchist Kropotkin war von diesem Modell sehr angetan, weil sich die ­Postorganisationen weltweit vernetzten, ohne auf Staaten angewiesen zu sein.
Ja, das hat ihn fasziniert – eine internationale ­Vernetzung, ohne dass jemand kommandiert.

Ähnlich wie das Internet heute?
Es gibt in der Tat eine Parallele in der Entwicklung logistischer Netze. Sie entstehen meist im Zusammenhang mit dem Militär, danach gehen sie in die Privatwirtschaft über. Die Nutzer kommen auf den Geschmack, und schliesslich wird das gesamte Netz dazu verwendet, die Leute auszuspionieren und mit unliebsamem Spam zu fluten. Das Internet ist letztlich eine Kombination aus Post, Bibliothek und Handelsplatz.

Überwiegt bei Ihnen die Freude über die neuen Kommunikationsmittel – rasch, ­interaktiv, sozial vernetzt – oder die ­Befürchtung möglicher Gefahren wie Datenüberflutung, Shitstorm, Mobbing?
Das Internet ist eine Realität wie die Schwerkraft, da mache ich mir keine Gedanken, ob nun die Vor- oder Nachteile überwiegen.

Das erfolgreichste Wachstumsmodell in den vergangenen Jahren war China, ­gleichzeitig aber auch ein neuer Höhepunkt von ­Bürokratie. Es gibt dort kaum eine Firma, die an den Wänden ihrer Büros nicht eine staatliche Auszeichnung hängen hat.
Wir haben bis heute erst wenig verstanden, was genau in China passiert. Natürlich verläuft diese Modernisierung sehr bürokratisch und autoritär, aber in der südlichen Hemisphäre sehen viele das chinesische Modell als Alternative zur westlichen Entwicklung. Ich halte das für falsch. Ich sehe den Schlüssel zum Verständnis der chinesischen Bürokratie vielmehr in der Angst der Machthaber, die Kontrolle könnte ihnen entgleiten. In China gibt es jedes Jahr Tausende lokale Aufstände und Unruhen – jeden Tag passiert irgendwo etwas. Die Macht­haber regieren und verwalten in ständiger Angst vor unberechenbaren Reaktionen der Bevölkerung, das lässt sich nicht mit Frankreich, Deutschland oder den USA vergleichen.

«Der Sprache geht es ähnlich. Sie hat klare Regeln, ändert sich aber laufend. Den Leuten ist es schlicht zu langweilig, sich immer an die Regeln zu halten.»

In Ihrem Buch gehen Sie auch auf Spiele ein und deren Verhältnis zur Bürokratie. «Play» und «Game» unterscheiden sich im ­englischen Sprachgebrauch wesentlich: Play ist freies Spiel der Fantasie, möglichst ohne Regeln – Game begrenzt die Fantasie durch klare, bürokratisch erlassene Regeln.
In vielen Sprachen gibt es diese Unterscheidung nicht, aber sie scheint mir wichtig. Play ist pures Spielen, totale Improvisation, bei der alles möglich ist. Das ist für den Moment wunderbar, aber wird rasch langweilig. Interessant bleibt es nur, wenn es zum Game wird, Regeln eingeführt werden, die begrenzen allerdings auch die Fantasie. Kinder verbringen in einem gewissen Alter beim Spielen rund die Hälfte der Zeit damit, klare Regeln zu definieren.

Wenn Kinder sehr klein sind, akzeptieren sie keine Regeln.
Sobald sie den Sinn des Spiels erkannt haben, schon. Der Sprache geht es ähnlich. Sie hat klare Regeln, ändert sich aber laufend durch ihren spielerischen Gebrauch im Alltag. Den Leuten ist es schlicht zu langweilig, sich immer an die Regeln zu halten. Die Sprachregeln haben deshalb etwas Willkürliches und zugleich Moralisches, weil sie die Regeln in einem bestimmten historischen Zeitpunkt für allgemeingültig erklären und ihre Verletzung als falsch. Wäre die Regelung zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt erfolgt, würden andere Regeln gelten.

Sie haben auch Comichelden in ihrem ­Verhältnis von freier Fantasie und klaren Regeln untersucht.
Ja, das mache ich gern. Arbeit soll ja auch mit Spass verbunden sein, und inzwischen habe ich viel Freiheit bei der Wahl meiner Forschungsobjekte. Ich habe ja auch die Kultserie «Buffy, the Vampire Slayer» («Im Bann der Dämonen») untersucht und kam zum Schluss, dass die Produzenten dieser ­Serie sich nicht bewusst waren, wie subversiv ihre ­Serie war.

«Die Rechte ist überzeugt, dass Ordnung stets durch Gewalt entsteht – so erklärt sich auch diese seltsame Affinität zwischen Verbrechern, Faschisten und Polizisten.»

Der einstige Comicheld Batman steht für strenge Regeln. Sein Thema scheint aktuell, dafür spricht die Neuverfilmung.
Die Figur Batman ist Opfer einer Verletzung der ­Regeln. Batman wächst nach dem Mord an seinen Eltern als Waise auf und rächt als Erwachsener dieses Unrecht. Er bricht die Regeln, um die Geltung der Regeln wiederherzustellen. Es geht hier um das Prinzip der Souveränität, mit dem sich Carl Schmitt und Walter Benjamin, aber auch Linke wie Antonio Negri beschäftigten: Verfassung und Gesetz entstehen meist nach Revolutionen, Regeln durch einen Regelbruch. Politik ist das Handwerk, mit diesem Paradox umzugehen. Die Rechte ist überzeugt, dass Ordnung stets durch Gewalt entsteht – so erklärt sich auch diese seltsame Affinität zwischen Verbrechern, Faschisten und Polizisten. Sie sprechen dieselbe Sprache und verstehen sich.

Was ist mit den Simpsons? Strenge Verfechter der Regeln sind sie nicht, eher Ironiker.
Das ist eine der spielerischsten Konstruktionen von Figuren, deshalb ebenfalls sehr erfolgreich. Das Play-Prinzip hat sich stets gut gehalten. Aber es reicht nicht. Der Schriftsteller Robert Frost hat es so erklärt: «Freie Verse schreiben ist wie Tennis- spielen ohne Netz.»

(Tages-Anzeiger)

(Erstellt: 26.02.2016, 23:13 Uhr)

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

A Brave New Dystopia

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/2011_a_brave_new_dystopia_20101227/

Posted on Dec 27, 2010

By Chris Hedges

The two greatest visions of a future dystopia were George Orwell's "1984" and Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World." The debate, between those who watched our descent towards corporate totalitarianism, was who was right. Would we be, as Orwell wrote, dominated by a repressive surveillance and security state that used crude and violent forms of control? Or would we be, as Huxley envisioned, entranced by entertainment and spectacle, captivated by technology and seduced by profligate consumption to embrace our own oppression? It turns out Orwell and Huxley were both right. Huxley saw the first stage of our enslavement. Orwell saw the second.

We have been gradually disempowered by a corporate state that, as Huxley foresaw, seduced and manipulated us through sensual gratification, cheap mass-produced goods, boundless credit, political theater and amusement. While we were entertained, the regulations that once kept predatory corporate power in check were dismantled, the laws that once protected us were rewritten and we were impoverished. Now that credit is drying up, good jobs for the working class are gone forever and mass-produced goods are unaffordable, we find ourselves transported from "Brave New World" to "1984." The state, crippled by massive deficits, endless war and corporate malfeasance, is sliding toward bankruptcy. It is time for Big Brother to take over from Huxley's feelies, the orgy-porgy and the centrifugal bumble-puppy. We are moving from a society where we are skillfully manipulated by lies and illusions to one where we are overtly controlled. 

Orwell, as Neil Postman wrote, warned of a world where books were banned. Huxley, Postman noted, warned of a world where no one wanted to read books. Orwell warned of a state of permanent war and fear. Huxley warned of a culture diverted by mindless pleasure. Orwell warned of a state where every conversation and thought was monitored and dissent was brutally punished. Huxley warned of a state where a population, preoccupied by trivia and gossip, no longer cared about truth or information. Orwell saw us frightened into submission. Huxley saw us seduced into submission. But Huxley, we are discovering, was merely the prelude to Orwell. Huxley understood the process by which we would be complicit in our own enslavement. Orwell understood the enslavement. Now that the corporate coup is over, we stand naked and defenseless. We are beginning to understand, as Karl Marx knew, that unfettered and unregulated capitalism is a brutal and revolutionary force that exploits human beings and the natural world until exhaustion or collapse. 

"The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake," Orwell wrote in "1984."  "We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from all the oligarchies of the past, in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just round the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power."

The political philosopher Sheldon Wolin uses the term "inverted totalitarianism" in his book "Democracy Incorporated" to describe our political system. It is a term that would make sense to Huxley. In inverted totalitarianism, the sophisticated technologies of corporate control, intimidation and mass manipulation, which far surpass those employed by previous totalitarian states, are effectively masked by the glitter, noise and abundance of a consumer society. Political participation and civil liberties are gradually surrendered. The corporation state, hiding behind the smokescreen of the public relations industry, the entertainment industry and the tawdry materialism of a consumer society, devours us from the inside out. It owes no allegiance to us or the nation. It feasts upon our carcass. 

The corporate state does not find its expression in a demagogue or charismatic leader. It is defined by the anonymity and facelessness of the corporation. Corporations, who hire attractive spokespeople like Barack Obama, control the uses of science, technology, education and mass communication. They control the messages in movies and television. And, as in "Brave New World," they use these tools of communication to bolster tyranny. Our systems of mass communication, as Wolin writes, "block out, eliminate whatever might introduce qualification, ambiguity, or dialogue, anything that might weaken or complicate the holistic force of their creation, to its total impression."

The result is a monochromatic system of information. Celebrity courtiers, masquerading as journalists, experts and specialists, identify our problems and patiently explain the parameters. All those who argue outside the imposed parameters are dismissed as irrelevant cranks, extremists or members of a radical left. Prescient social critics, from Ralph Nader to Noam Chomsky, are banished. Acceptable opinions have a range of A to B. The culture, under the tutelage of these corporate courtiers, becomes, as Huxley noted, a world of cheerful conformity, as well as an endless and finally fatal optimism. We busy ourselves buying products that promise to change our lives, make us more beautiful, confident or successful as we are steadily stripped of rights, money and influence. All messages we receive through these systems of communication, whether on the nightly news or talk shows like "Oprah," promise a brighter, happier tomorrow. And this, as Wolin points out, is "the same ideology that invites corporate executives to exaggerate profits and conceal losses, but always with a sunny face." We have been entranced, as Wolin writes, by "continuous technological advances" that "encourage elaborate fantasies of individual prowess, eternal youthfulness, beauty through surgery, actions measured in nanoseconds: a dream-laden culture of ever-expanding control and possibility, whose denizens are prone to fantasies because the vast majority have imagination but little scientific knowledge."

Our manufacturing base has been dismantled. Speculators and swindlers have looted the U.S. Treasury and stolen billions from small shareholders who had set aside money for retirement or college. Civil liberties, including habeas corpus and protection from warrantless wiretapping, have been taken away. Basic services, including public education and health care, have been handed over to the corporations to exploit for profit. The few who raise voices of dissent, who refuse to engage in the corporate happy talk, are derided by the corporate establishment as freaks.

Attitudes and temperament have been cleverly engineered by the corporate state, as with Huxley's pliant characters in "Brave New World." The book's protagonist, Bernard Marx, turns in frustration to his girlfriend Lenina:

"Don't you wish you were free, Lenina?" he asks.

"I don't know that you mean. I am free, free to have the most wonderful time. Everybody's happy nowadays."

He laughed, "Yes, 'Everybody's happy nowadays.' We have been giving the children that at five. But wouldn't you like to be free to be happy in some other way, Lenina? In your own way, for example; not in everybody else's way."

"I don't know what you mean," she repeated.

The façade is crumbling. And as more and more people realize that they have been used and robbed, we will move swiftly from Huxley's "Brave New World" to Orwell's "1984." The public, at some point, will have to face some very unpleasant truths. The good-paying jobs are not coming back. The largest deficits in human history mean that we are trapped in a debt peonage system that will be used by the corporate state to eradicate the last vestiges of social protection for citizens, including Social Security. The state has devolved from a capitalist democracy to neo-feudalism. And when these truths become apparent, anger will replace the corporate-imposed cheerful conformity. The bleakness of our post-industrial pockets, where some 40 million Americans live in a state of poverty and tens of millions in a category called "near poverty," coupled with the lack of credit to save families from foreclosures, bank repossessions and bankruptcy from medical bills, means that inverted totalitarianism will no longer work.

We increasingly live in Orwell's Oceania, not Huxley's The World State. Osama bin Laden plays the role assumed by Emmanuel Goldstein in "1984." Goldstein, in the novel, is the public face of terror. His evil machinations and clandestine acts of violence dominate the nightly news. Goldstein's image appears each day on Oceania's television screens as part of the nation's "Two Minutes of Hate" daily ritual. And without the intervention of the state, Goldstein, like bin Laden, will kill you. All excesses are justified in the titanic fight against evil personified.

The psychological torture of Pvt. Bradley Manning—who has now been imprisoned for seven months without being convicted of any crime—mirrors the breaking of the dissident Winston Smith at the end of "1984." Manning is being held as a "maximum custody detainee" in the brig at Marine Corps Base Quantico, in Virginia. He spends 23 of every 24 hours alone. He is denied exercise. He cannot have a pillow or sheets for his bed. Army doctors have been plying him with antidepressants. The cruder forms of torture of the Gestapo have been replaced with refined Orwellian techniques, largely developed by government psychologists, to turn dissidents like Manning into vegetables. We break souls as well as bodies. It is more effective. Now we can all be taken to Orwell's dreaded Room 101 to become compliant and harmless. These "special administrative measures" are regularly imposed on our dissidents, including Syed Fahad Hashmi, who was imprisoned under similar conditions for three years before going to trial. The techniques have psychologically maimed thousands of detainees in our black sites around the globe. They are the staple form of control in our maximum security prisons where the corporate state makes war on our most politically astute underclass—African-Americans. It all presages the shift from Huxley to Orwell.

"Never again will you be capable of ordinary human feeling," Winston Smith's torturer tells him in "1984." "Everything will be dead inside you. Never again will you be capable of love, or friendship, or joy of living, or laughter, or curiosity, or courage, or integrity. You will be hollow. We shall squeeze you empty and then we shall fill you with ourselves."

The noose is tightening. The era of amusement is being replaced by the era of repression. Tens of millions of citizens have had their e-mails and phone records turned over to the government. We are the most monitored and spied-on citizenry in human history. Many of us have our daily routine caught on dozens of security cameras. Our proclivities and habits are recorded on the Internet. Our profiles are electronically generated. Our bodies are patted down at airports and filmed by scanners. And public service announcements, car inspection stickers, and public transportation posters constantly urge us to report suspicious activity. The enemy is everywhere.

Those who do not comply with the dictates of the war on terror, a war which, as Orwell noted, is endless, are brutally silenced. The draconian security measures used to cripple protests at the G-20 gatherings in Pittsburgh and Toronto were wildly disproportionate for the level of street activity. But they sent a clear message—DO NOT TRY THIS. The FBI's targeting of antiwar and Palestinian activists, which in late September saw agents raid homes in Minneapolis and Chicago, is a harbinger of what is to come for all who dare defy the state's official Newspeak. The agents—our Thought Police—seized phones, computers, documents and other personal belongings. Subpoenas to appear before a grand jury have since been served on 26 people. The subpoenas cite federal law prohibiting "providing material support or resources to designated foreign terrorist organizations." Terror, even for those who have nothing to do with terror, becomes the blunt instrument used by Big Brother to protect us from ourselves.

"Do you begin to see, then, what kind of world we are creating?" Orwell wrote. "It is the exact opposite of the stupid hedonistic Utopias that the old reformers imagined. A world of fear and treachery and torment, a world of trampling and being trampled upon, a world which will grow not less but more merciless as it refines itself."

Chris Hedges is a senior fellow at The Nation Institute. His newest book is "Death of the Liberal Class."

Revisions have been made in this column since it was originally posted on Truthdig.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Satyajit Das: Age of Stagnation or Something Worse?

By Satyajit Das, a former banker and author whose latest book, The Age of Stagnation, is now available. The following is an edited excerpt from Age of Stagnation (published with the permission of Prometheus Books)

If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth, only . . . wishful thinking to begin, and in the end, despair. C.S. Lewis

The world is entering a period of stagnation, the new mediocre. The end of growth and fragile, volatile economic conditions are now the sometimes silent background to all social and political debates. For individuals, this is about the destruction of human hopes and dreams.

One Offs

For most of human history, as Thomas Hobbes recognised, life has been 'solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short'. The fortunate coincidence of factors that drove the unprecedented improvement in living standards following the Industrial Revolution, and especially in the period after World War II, may have been unique, an historical aberration. Now, different influences threaten to halt further increases, and even reverse the gains.

Since the early 1980s, economic activity and growth have been increasingly driven by financialisation – the replacement of industrial activity with financial trading and increased levels of borrowing to finance consumption and investment. By 2007, US$5 of new debt was necessary to create an additional US$1 of American economic activity, a fivefold increase from the 1950s. Debt levels had risen beyond the repayment capacity of borrowers, triggering the 2008 crisis and the Great Recession that followed. But the world shows little sign of shaking off its addiction to borrowing. Ever-increasing amounts of debt now act as a brake on growth.

Growth in international trade and capital flows is slowing. Emerging markets that have benefited from and, in recent times, supported growth are slowing.

Rising inequality and economic exclusion also impacts negatively upon activity.

Financial problems are compounded by lower population growth and ageing populations; slower increases in productivity and innovation; looming shortages of critical resources, such as water, food and energy; and manmade climate change and extreme weather conditions.

The world requires an additional 64 billion cubic metres of water a year, equivalent to the annual water flow through Germany's Rhine River. Agronomists estimate that production will need to increase by 60–100 percent by 2050 to feed the population of the world. While the world's supply of energy will not be exhausted any time soon, the human race is on track to exhaust the energy content of hundreds of millions years' worth of sunlight stored in the form of coal, oil and natural gas in a few hundred years. 10 tons of pre-historic buried plant and organic matter converted by pressure and heat over millennia was needed to create a single gallon (4.5 litres) of gasoline.

Europe is currently struggling to deal with a few million refugees fleeing conflicts in the Middle East. How will the world deal with hundreds of millions of people at risk of displacement as a resulting of rising sea levels?

Extend and Pretend

The official response to the 2008 crisis was a policy of 'extend and pretend', whereby authorities chose to ignore the underlying problem, cover it up, or devise deferral strategies to 'kick the can down the road'. The assumption was that government spending, lower interest rates, and the supply of liquidity or cash to money markets would create growth. It would also increase inflation to help reduce the level of debt, by decreasing its value.

It was the grifter's long con, a confidence trick with a potentially large payoff but difficult to pull off. Houses prices and stock markets have risen, but growth, employment, income and investment have barely recovered to pre-crisis levels in most advanced economies. Inflation for the most part remains stubbornly low.

In countries that have 'recovered', financial markets are, in many cases, at or above pre-crisis prices. But conditions in the real economy have not returned to normal. Must-have latest electronic gadgets cannot obscure the fact that living standards for most people are stagnant. Job insecurity has risen. Wages are static, where they are not falling. Accepted perquisites of life in developed countries, such as education, houses, health services, aged care, savings and retirement, are increasingly unattainable.

In more severely affected countries, conditions are worse. Despite talk of a return to growth, the Greek economy has shrunk by a quarter. Spending by Greeks has fallen by 40 percent, reflecting reduced wages and pensions. Reported unemployment is 26 percent of the labour force. Youth unemployment is over 50 percent. One commentator observed that the government could save money on education, as it was unnecessary to prepare people for jobs that did not exist.

Future generations may have fewer opportunities and lower living standards than their parents. A 2013 Pew Research Centre survey conducted in thirty-nine countries asked whether people believed that their children would enjoy better living standards: 33 percent of Americans believed so, as did 28 percent of Germans, 17 percent of British and 14 percent of Italians. Just 9 percent of French people thought their children would be better off than previous generations.

The Deadly Cure

Authorities have been increasingly forced to resort to untested policies including QE forever and negative interest rates. It was an attempt to buy time, to let economies achieve a self-sustaining recovery, as they had done before. Unfortunately the policies have not succeeded. The expensively purchased time has been wasted. The necessary changes have not been made.

There are toxic side effects. Global debt has increased, not decreased, in response to low rates and government spending. Banks, considered dangerously large after the events of 2008, have increased in size and market power since then. In the US the six largest banks now control nearly 70 percent of all the assets in the US financial system, having increased their share by around 40 percent.

Individual countries have sought to export their troubles, abandoning international cooperation for beggar-thy-neighbour strategies. Destructive retaliation, in the form of tit-for-tat interest rate cuts, currency wars, and restrictions on trade, limits the ability of any nation to gain a decisive advantage.

The policies have also set the stage for a new financial crisis. Easy money has artificially boosted prices of financial assets beyond their real value. A significant amount of this capital has flowed into and destabilised emerging markets. Addicted to government and central bank support, the world economy may not be able to survive without low rates and excessive liquidity.

Authorities increasingly find themselves trapped, with little room for manoeuvre and unable to discontinue support for the economy. Central bankers know, even if they are unwilling to publicly acknowledge it, that their tools are inadequate or exhausted, now possessing the potency of shamanic rain dances. More than two decades of trying similar measures in Japan highlight their ineffectiveness in avoiding stagnation.

Heart of the Matter

Conscious that the social compact requires growth and prosperity, politicians, irrespective of ideology, are unwilling to openly discuss the real issues. They claim crisis fatigue, arguing that the problems are too far into the future to require immediate action. Fearing electoral oblivion, they have succumbed to populist demands for faux certainty and placebo policies. But in so doing they are merely piling up the problems.

Policymakers interrogate their models and torture data, failing to grasp that 'many of the things you can count don't count [while] many of the things you can't count really count'. The possibility of a historical shift does not inform current thinking.

It is not in the interest of bankers and financial advisers to tell their clients about the real outlook. Bad news is bad for business. The media and commentariat, for the most part, accentuate the positive. Facts, they argue, are too depressing. The priority is to maintain the appearance of normality, to engender confidence.

Ordinary people refuse to acknowledge that maybe you cannot have it all. But there is increasingly a visceral unease about the present and a fear of the future. Everyone senses that the ultimate cost of the inevitable adjustments will be large. It is not simply the threat of economic hardship; it is fear of a loss of dignity and pride. It is a pervasive sense of powerlessness.

For the moment, the world hopes for the best of times but is afraid of the worst. People everywhere resemble Dory, the Royal Blue Tang fish in the animated film Finding Nemo. Suffering from short-term memory loss, she just tells herself to keep on swimming. Her direction is entirely random and without purpose.

Reckoning Postponed

The world has postponed, indefinitely, dealing decisively with the challenges, choosing instead to risk stagnation or collapse. But reality cannot be deferred forever. Kicking the can down the road only shifts the responsibility for dealing with it onto others, especially future generations.

A slow, controlled correction of the financial, economic, resource and environmental excesses now would be serious but manageable. If changes are not made, then the forced correction will be dramatic and violent, with unknown consequences.

During the last half-century each successive economic crisis has increased in severity, requiring progressively larger measures to ameliorate its effects. Over time, the policies have distorted the economy. The effectiveness of instruments has diminished. With public finances weakened and interest rates at historic lows, there is now little room for manoeuvre. Geo-political risks have risen. Trust and faith in institutions and policy makers has weakened.

Economic problems are feeding social and political discontent, opening the way for extremism. In the Great Depression the fear and disaffection of ordinary people who had lost their jobs and savings gave rise to fascism. Writing of the period, historian A.J.P. Taylor noted: '[the] middle class, everywhere the pillar of stability and respectability . . . was now utterly destroyed . . . they became resentful . . . violent and irresponsible . . . ready to follow the first demagogic saviour . . .'

The new crisis that is now approaching or may already be with us will be like a virulent infection attacking a body whose immune system is already compromised.

As Robert Louis Stevenson knew, sooner or later we all have to sit down to a banquet of consequences.

Friday, January 29, 2016

Roboy - Falsches Spiel mit dem Roboterjungen

Der Schweizer Robotik-Pionier Rolf Pfeifer will Roboy, seine populärste Schöpfung, zur Marktreife bringen. Dazu braucht er Geld. Doch seine Finanzberater zweigen Millionen an Risikokapital ab. Die Finma ermittelt.
Rolf Pfeifer mit Roboy, einem humanoiden Roboter, dessen Innenleben Muskeln und Knochen nachgebildet ist. Foto: Doris Fanconi

Rolf Pfeifer mit Roboy, einem humanoiden Roboter, dessen Innenleben Muskeln und Knochen nachgebildet ist. Foto: Doris Fanconi

Lizenz weg, zwangsliquidiert
Firma verwaltete 121 Millionen

Finanzberater S. M. kontrollierte nebst der AAA-Gruppe ein weiteres Unternehmen, bei dem die Finma eingriff. Die VIP Vermögensverwaltung AG administrierte für 48 Kunden, zur Mehrheit Schweizer Privatpersonen, rund 121 Millionen Franken. M., der im Zürcher Oberland in einem stattlichen Haus mit Swimmingpool gemeldet ist, war der einzige Verwaltungsrat. Am 18. Januar 2016 hat die Aufsicht zu ihrer schärfsten Waffe gegriffen: Sie entzog der Firma die Lizenz als Finanzintermediär – und liess sie zwangsliquidieren.

Gegen diesen Schritt hatte sich M. jahrelang gewehrt, blitzte aber im November 2015 beim Bundesverwaltungsgericht ab. Im Urteil sind schwere Vorwürfe gegen ihn aufgelistet: Er habe keine vollständigen Kundendossiers geführt, Geldwäscherei-Abklärungen nicht sauber vorgenommen, seine Aufsichts- und Treuepflichten als Vermögensverwalter «systematisch» verletzt. Und: Er habe mit dem angelegten Geld Aktien von Firmen gekauft, die ihm nahestanden – ein «offensichtlicher Interessenkonflikt». Wie viel von den einst 121 Millionen übrig ist, muss nun der Liquidator herausfinden. (ms) 

Wenn die Schweizer Presse über Rolf Pfeifer berichtet, greift sie gern zu Superlativen: Er sei einer der «weltweit führenden Köpfe zum Thema künstliche Intelligenz» («Berner Zeitung»), einer der «kreativsten Forscher der modernen Robotik» («Weltwoche»). Der Ruf des Professors fusst auf seiner Arbeit am Arti­ficial Intelligence Lab an der Universität Zürich, das er aufgebaut und über 25 Jahre lang geleitet hat.

Der 68-Jährige ist bis heute eine Inspiration für Roboter-Forscher weltweit – er war einer der Ersten, der sich mit der Frage beschäftigte, ob künstliche Intelligenz einen Körper braucht, um sich voll entfalten zu können. 2014 verliess Rolf Pfeifer die Universität Zürich, er wurde emeritiert. Der geborene Stadtzürcher nahm zwei Professuren in Osaka und Shanghai an, er wollte weiter mit Ro­botern arbeiten.

Aber seit dem 20. August 2015 stockt eines seiner Projekte. Pfeifer hat die Kontrolle über seine eigene Firma verloren, mit der er seine populärste Schöpfung kommerzialisieren wollte – den Roboterjungen Roboy. Heute sind die Bank­konten der AI Technology AG gesperrt, Verwaltungsrat Rolf Pfeifer darf für die Gesellschaft nicht mal mehr eine Schraube einkaufen: Die Finanzmarkt­aufsicht Finma hat ihm das Recht, für sie zu unterschreiben, entzogen. Eine externe Anwaltskanzlei durchleuchtet nun die AI Technology. Der Verdacht: In der Firma klafft ein Millionenloch.

Lächelnder Maschinenmensch

Was ist passiert? Pfeifer hat sich mit zwei Schweizer Finanzberatern zusammengetan, die laut Finma verdächtigt werden, eine siebenstellige Summe in die eigenen Taschen umgeleitet zu haben. Die beiden Vermögensverwalter nehmen heute ihre Telefone nicht mehr ab, ihre Webseiten sind aus dem Netz verschwunden, Mails des TA werden nicht beantwortet.

Die Geschichte dreht sich um Roboy, Pfeifers jüngstes Grossprojekt. Einer der ersten humanoiden, also menschenähnlichen Roboter, dessen Innenleben Muskeln und Knochen nachgebildet ist. Pfeifer und Team bauten den Prototyp in neun Monaten fiebriger Arbeit im AI Lab am Institut für Informatik zusammen. Der freundlich lächelnde Maschinenmensch wurde 2013 vorgestellt, er avancierte sofort zum Medienstar, Hunderte Berichte erschienen, Roboy wurde zu Pfeifers Maskottchen, ging auf Tour, trat gar als Schauspieler auf.

Der Professor nahm sich vor, Körperteile von Roboy weiterzuentwickeln und mit einer eigenen Firma zur Marktreife zu bringen. Eine der Ideen war, aus dem Kopf eine digitale Empfangsdame für Firmensitze zu machen: «Das Marktpotenzial ist gross; zahlreiche Firmen haben ihr Interesse angemeldet», heisst es auf der Webseite von AI Technology.

90 private Geldgeber angelockt

Aber für die Entwicklung brauchte Pfeifer Geld. Und da kam S. M.* ins Spiel. Der private Vermögensverwalter aus dem Zürcher Oberland ging mit dem Professor eine Allianz ein. Beide nahmen Einsitz in den Verwaltungsrat der AI Technology AG, unter deren Dach künftig «neuartige Produkte aus dem Gebiet der künstlichen Intelligenz und Robotik» entworfen werden sollten.

Dann begann die Geldsuche. Man drehte einen Promofilm samt einem Statement von Roboy selbst («Ich bin der Stammvater einer neuen Generation von humanoiden Robotern»). Programmierte eine Webseite (Slogan: «Stellen Sie sich vor, die Zukunft beginnt jetzt»). Und nach TA-Informationen fand mindestens einmal ein Werbeevent in den Räumen des Zürcher Uni-Labors von Professor Pfeifer statt, an dem poten­zielle Investoren zugegen waren.

Tatsächlich verkaufte S. M. zusammen mit seinem Partner M. R.* mehr als 300 000 Aktien der AI Technology an mindestens 90 private Geldgeber. Über vier Millionen Franken an Risikokapital kamen 2014 zusammen. So steht es in ­einem Finma-Papier, das dem TA vorliegt. Nur: Dort heisst es auch, dass davon 3,6 Millionen nicht in die Entwicklung von Robotern floss, sondern an drei AGs, welche M. und R. kontrollierten.

In den Akten steht, dass sich die Finanzmarktaufsicht seit 2010 Scharmützel mit M. und R. geliefert hatte, schon damals ging es um den Verkauf von ­Aktien. Am 20. August 2015 zog die Finma die Notbremse und fror nebst der AI Technology gleich fünf weitere Gesellschaften ein, die von M. und R. beherrscht wurden. Dazu gehörte die Top 24 AG, die in Schmuck, Perlen und in ein 3787 Gramm schweres Goldnugget investiert haben soll, sowie die Diamonds24 AG, die angeblich mit Diamanten handelte. Laut Finma hatten total über 200 Anleger Aktien erworben. Konten bei der St. Galler Kantonalbank, der Schwyzer Kantonalbank und der UBS wurden blockiert.

Substanzielle Beträge bezogen

Als Drehscheibe entpuppte sich die AAA Beteiligungen AG in Unterägeri ZG. Unter ihrem Schirm konnten sich Investoren an den verschiedenen Firmen beteiligen, indem sie deren Anteile von geringem Nennwert erwarben, die zu Hunderttausenden herausgegeben wurden.

Aber mit diesen Anlagen stimmte etwas nicht. Die Finma stellte fest, dass M. und R. «jährlich substanzielle Beträge unter diversen Titeln (Lohn, Spesen, Provision, Bonus, Auto, Miete)» an sich selbst und ihre Gesellschaften auszahlten. Mehr noch: Vor dem Eingreifen der Finma wurden Konten von Firmen aus der AAA-Gruppe bei Schweizer Banken saldiert und «hohe Beträge ins nahe ­gelegene Ausland transferiert».

Hinzu kommt, dass man in der Schweiz nicht ohne weiteres mit Aktien handeln darf. Dafür sind Bewilligungen notwendig – welche die AAA-Gruppe nicht hatte, wie die Finma feststellte. Mindestens einer Selbstregulierungs­organisation hätte sich die AAA anschliessen müssen, aber ein Aufnahmegesuch scheiterte im Frühling 2015 wegen «fehlender Belege».

Roboy emigrierte nach München

Die Liste der Finma-Vorwürfe an die Adresse von M., R. und deren «AAA-Konzern» geht über 18Seiten. Am Ende erhält die Zürcher Kanzlei Holenstein den Auftrag, die Bücher der Firmen zu durchkämmen, um festzustellen, was genau passiert ist. Wo genau all die Millionen durch- und hinflossen. Wie viele Anleger wie viel verloren haben. Bis jetzt existieren lediglich Verdachtsmomente. Es kann Monate dauern, bis der Holenstein-Bericht vorliegt. Einstweilen gilt für M. und R. die Unschuldsvermutung. Die beiden Vermögensverwalter meldeten sich trotz mehrerer Anfragen nicht beim TA.

Professor Pfeifer steht nicht im Fokus der Ermittlungen; die Finma erhebt keine Vorwürfe gegen ihn. Es stellt sich aber die Frage, warum er als Verwaltungsrat der AI Technology nicht merkte, wie M. und R. geschäfteten. Pfeifer wollte wegen des laufenden Verfahrens keine Auskunft geben.

Roboy selbst ist von der Finma-­Blockade nicht betroffen. Er gehört der Universität Zürich. Heute «wohnt» er an der Technischen Universität München, wo sich ein ehemaliger Student Pfeifers um ihn kümmert.

* Namen der Redaktion bekannt

(Tages-Anzeiger)

(Erstellt: 28.01.2016, 22:35 Uhr)

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Why the calorie is broken

by Cynthia Graber and Nicola Twilley for Mosaic - Jan 26, 2016 3:46pm CET

Getty Images
Calories consumed minus calories burned—it's the simple formula for weight loss or gain, but dieters often find that it doesn't work. Cynthia Graber and Nicola Twilley ofGastropod investigate for Mosaic science, where this story first appeared. It's republished here under a Creative Commons license.

"For me, a calorie is a unit of measurement that's a real pain in the rear."

Bo Nash is 38. He lives in Arlington, Texas, where he's a technology director for a textbook publisher. He has a wife and child. And he's 5'10" and 245 lbs—which means he is classed as obese.

In an effort to lose weight, Nash uses an app to record the calories he consumes and a Fitbit band to track the energy he expends. These tools bring an apparent precision: Nash can quantify the calories in each cracker crunched and stair climbed. But when it comes to weight gain, he finds that not all calories are equal. How much weight he gains or loses seems to depend less on the total number of calories and more on where the calories come from and how he consumes them. The unit, he says, has a "nebulous quality to it."

Tara Haelle is also obese. She had her second son on St Patrick's Day in 2014 and hasn't been able to lose the 70 lbs she gained during pregnancy. Haelle is a freelance science journalist based in Illinois. She understands the science of weight loss, but like Nash, she doesn't see it translate into practice. "It makes sense from a mathematical and scientific and even visceral level that what you put in and what you take out, measured in the discrete unit of the calorie, should balance," says Haelle. "But it doesn't seem to work that way."

Nash and Haelle are in good company. More than two-thirds of American adults are overweight or obese. For many of them, the cure is diet: one in three are attempting to lose weight in this way at any given moment. Yet there is ample evidence that diets rarely lead to sustained weight loss. These are expensive failures. This inability to curb the extraordinary prevalence of obesity costs the United States more than $147 billion in healthcare, $4.3 billion in job absenteeism, and even more in lost productivity.

At the heart of this issue is a single unit of measurement—the calorie—and some seemingly straightforward arithmetic. "To lose weight, you must use up more calories than you take in," according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dieters like Nash and Haelle could eat all their meals at McDonald's and still lose weight provided they burn enough calories, says Marion Nestle, professor of nutrition, food studies, and public health at New York University. "Really, that's all it takes."

But Nash and Haelle do not find weight control so simple. And part of the problem goes way beyond individual self-control. The numbers logged in Nash's Fitbit or printed on the food labels that Haelle reads religiously are at best good guesses. Worse yet, as scientists are increasingly finding, some of those calorie counts are flat-out wrong—off by more than enough, for instance, to wipe out the calories Haelle burns by running an extra mile on a treadmill. A calorie isn't just a calorie. And our mistaken faith in the power of this seemingly simple measurement may be hindering the fight against obesity.

Where the calories come from

The process of counting calories begins in an anonymous office block in Maryland. The building is home to the Beltsville Human Nutrition Research Center, a facility run by the US Department of Agriculture. When we visit, the kitchen staff are preparing dinner for people enrolled in a study. Plastic dinner trays are laid out with meatloaf, mashed potatoes, corn, brown bread, a chocolate-chip scone, vanilla yoghurt and a can of tomato juice. The staff weigh and bag each item, sometimes adding an extra two-centimeter sliver of bread to ensure a tray's contents add up to the exact calorie requirements of each participant. "We actually get compliments about the food," says David Baer, a supervisory research physiologist with the Department.

The work that Baer and colleagues do draws on centuries-old techniques. Nestle traces modern attempts to understand food and energy back to a French aristocrat and chemist named Antoine Lavoisier. In the early 1780s, Lavoisier developed a triple-walled metal canister large enough to house a guinea pig. Inside the walls was a layer of ice. Lavoisier knew how much energy was required to melt ice, so he could estimate the heat the animal emitted by measuring the amount of water that dripped from the canister. What Lavoisier didn't realize—and never had time to find out; he was put to the guillotine during the Revolution—was that measuring the heat emitted by his guinea pigs was a way to estimate the amount of energy they had extracted from the food they were digesting.

Until recently, the scientists at Beltsville used what was essentially a scaled-up version of Lavoisier's canister to estimate the energy used by humans: a small room in which a person could sleep, eat, excrete, and walk on a treadmill, while temperature sensors embedded in the walls measured the heat given off and thus the calories burned. (We now measure this energy in calories. Roughly speaking, one calorie is the heat required to raise the temperature of one kilogram of water by one degree Celsius.) Today, those 'direct-heat' calorimeters have largely been replaced by 'indirect-heat' systems, in which sensors measure oxygen intake and carbon dioxide exhalations. Scientists know how much energy is used during the metabolic processes that create the carbon dioxide we breathe out, so they can work backwards to deduce that, for example, a human who has exhaled 15 liters of carbon dioxide must have used 94 calories of energy.

The facility's three indirect calorimeters are down the halls from the research kitchen. "They're basically nothing more than walk-in coolers, modified to allow people to live in here," physiologist William Rumpler explains as he shows us around. Inside each white room, a single bed is folded up against the wall, alongside a toilet, sink, a small desk and chair, and a short treadmill. A couple of airlocks allow food, urine, faeces and blood samples to be passed back and forth. Apart from these reminders of the room's purpose, the vinyl-floored, fluorescent-lit units resemble a 1970s dorm room. Rumpler explains that subjects typically spend 24 to 48 hours inside the calorimeter, following a highly structured schedule. A notice pinned to the door outlines the protocol for the latest study:

6:00 to 6:45pm—Dinner, 
11:00pm—Latest bedtime, mandatory lights out, 
11:00pm to 6:30am—Sleep, remain in bed even if not sleeping.

In between meals, blood tests and bowel movements, calorimeter residents are asked to walk on the treadmill at 3 miles per hour for 30 minutes. They fill the rest of the day with what Rumpler calls "low activity."

"We encourage people to bring knitting or books to read," he says. "If you give people free hand, you'll be surprised by what they'll do inside the chamber." He tells us that one of his less cooperative subjects smuggled in a bag of M&Ms and then gave himself away by dropping them on the floor.

Using a bank of screens just outside the rooms, Rumpler can monitor exactly how many calories each subject is burning at any moment. Over the years, he and his colleagues have aggregated these individual results to arrive at numbers for general use: how many calories a 120-lb woman burns while running at 4.0 miles an hour, say, or the calories a sedentary man in his 60s needs to consume every day. It's the averages derived from thousands of extremely precise measurements that provide the numbers in Bo Nash's movement tracker and help Tara Haelle set a daily calorie intake target that is based on her height and weight.

Your calorie tracker of choice gets its data from the test kitchens too.

Measuring the calories in food itself relies on another modification of Lavoisier's device. In 1848, an Irish chemist called Thomas Andrews realized that he could estimate calorie content by setting food on fire in a chamber and measuring the temperature change in the surrounding water. (Burning food is chemically similar to the ways in which our bodies break food down, despite being much faster and less controlled.) Versions of Andrews's 'bomb calorimeter' are used to measure the calories in food today. At the Beltsville center, samples of the meatloaf, mashed potatoes and tomato juice have been incinerated in the lab's bomb calorimeter. "We freeze-dry it, crush into a powder, and fire it," says Baer.

Humans are not bomb calorimeters, of course, and we don't extract every calorie from the food we eat. This problem was addressed at the end of the 19th century, in one of the more epic experiments in the history of nutrition science. Wilbur Atwater, a Department of Agriculture scientist, began by measuring the calories contained in more than 4,000 foods. Then he fed those foods to volunteers and collected their faeces, which he incinerated in a bomb calorimeter. After subtracting the energy measured in the faeces from that in the food, he arrived at the Atwater values, numbers that represent the available energy in each gram of protein, carbohydrate and fat. These century-old figures remain the basis for today's standards. When Baer wants to know the calories per gram figure for that night's meatloaf, he corrects the bomb calorimeter results using Atwater values.

Trouble begins

This entire enterprise, from the Beltsville facility to the numbers on the packets of the food we buy, creates an aura of scientific precision around the business of counting calories. That precision is illusory.

The trouble begins at source, with the lists compiled by Atwater and others. Companies are allowed to incinerate freeze-dried pellets of product in a bomb calorimeter to arrive at calorie counts, though most avoid that hassle, says Marion Nestle. Some use the data developed by Atwater in the late 1800s. But the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) also allows companies to use a modified set of values, published by the Department of Agriculture in 1955, that take into account our ability to digest different foods in different ways.

Atwater's numbers say that Tara Haelle can extract 8.9 calories per gram of fat in a plate of her favorite Tex-Mex refried beans; the modified table shows that, thanks to the indigestibility of some of the plant fibers in legumes, she only gets 8.3 calories per gram. Depending on the calorie-measuring method that a company chooses—the FDA allows two more variations on the theme, for a total of five—a given serving of spaghetti can contain from 200 to 210 calories. These uncertainties can add up. Haelle and Bo Nash might deny themselves a snack or sweat out another few floors on the StairMaster to make sure they don't go 100 calories over their daily limit. If the data in their calorie counts is wrong, they can go over regardless.

There's also the issue of serving size. After visiting over 40 US chain restaurants, including Olive Garden, Outback Steakhouse and PF Chang's China Bistro, Susan Roberts of Tufts University's nutrition research center and colleagues discovered that a dish listed as having, say, 500 calories could contain 800 instead. The difference could easily have been caused, says Roberts, by local chefs heaping on extra french fries or pouring a dollop more sauce. It would be almost impossible for a calorie-counting dieter to accurately estimate their intake given this kind of variation.

Even if the calorie counts themselves were accurate, dieters like Haelle and Nash would have to contend with the significant variations between the total calories in the food and the amount our bodies extract. These variations, which scientists have only recently started to understand, go beyond the inaccuracies in the numbers on the back of food packaging. In fact, the new research calls into question the validity of nutrition science's core belief that a calorie is a calorie.

Using the Beltsville facilities, for instance, Baer and his colleagues found that our bodies sometimes extract fewer calories than the number listed on the label. Participants in their studies absorbed around a third fewer calories from almonds than the modified Atwater values suggest. For walnuts, the difference was 21 per cent. This is good news for someone who is counting calories and likes to snack on almonds or walnuts: he or she is absorbing far fewer calories than expected. The difference, Baer suspects, is due to the nuts' particular structure. "All the nutrients—the fat and the protein and things like that—they're inside this plant cell wall." Unless those walls are broken down—by processing, chewing or cooking—some of the calories remain off-limits to the body, and thus are excreted rather than absorbed.

Perhaps an unlikely source of caloric insight...
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Another striking insight came from an attempt to eat like a chimp. In the early 1970s, Richard Wrangham, an anthropologist at Harvard University and author of the book Catching Fire: How cooking made us human, observed wild chimps in Africa. Wrangham attempted to follow the entirely raw diet he saw the animals eating, snacking only on fruit, seeds, leaves, and insects such as termites and army ants. "I discovered that it left me incredibly hungry," he says. "And then I realized that every human eats their food cooked."

Wrangham and his colleagues have since shown that cooking unlaces microscopic structures that bind energy in foods, reducing the work our gut would otherwise have to do. It effectively outsources digestion to ovens and frying pans. Wrangham found that mice fed raw peanuts, for instance, lost significantly more weight than mice fed the equivalent amount of roasted peanut butter. The same effect holds true for meat: there are many more usable calories in a burger than in steak tartare. Different cooking methods matter too. In 2015, Sri Lankan scientists discovered that they could more than halve the available calories in rice by adding coconut oil during cooking and then cooling the rice in the refrigerator.

Wrangham's findings have significant consequences for dieters. If Nash likes his porterhouse steak bloody, for example, he will likely be consuming several hundred calories less than if he has it well-done. Yet the FDA's methods for creating a nutrition label do not for the most part account for the differences between raw and cooked food, or pureed versus whole, let alone the structure of plant versus animal cells. A steak is a steak, as far as the FDA is concerned.

Industrial food processing, which subjects foods to extremely high temperatures and pressures, might be freeing up even more calories. The food industry, says Wrangham, has been "increasingly turning our food to mush, to the maximum calories you can get out of it. Which, of course, is all very ironic, because in the West there's tremendous pressure to reduce the number of calories you're getting out of your food." He expects to find examples of structural differences that affect caloric availability in many more foods. "I think there is work here for hundreds and probably thousands of nutritionists for years," he says.

...and trouble continues

There's also the problem that no two people are identical. Differences in height, body fat, liver size, levels of the stress hormone cortisol, and other factors influence the energy required to maintain the body's basic functions. Between two people of the same sex, weight and age, this number may differ by up to 600 calories a day—over a quarter of the recommended intake for a moderately active woman. Even something as seemingly insignificant as the time at which we eat may affect how we process energy. In one recent study, researchers found that mice fed a high-fat diet between 9am and 5pm gained 28 per cent less weight than mice fed the exact same food across a 24-hour period. The researchers suggested that irregular feedings affect the circadian cycle of the liver and the way it metabolizes food, thus influencing overall energy balance. Such differences would not emerge under the feeding schedules in the Beltsville experiments.

FURTHER READING

PSYCHIATRIC DRUG—NOT ANTIBIOTIC—MESSES WITH GUT MICROBES, SPURS OBESITY

Mice burned fewer calories and had altered bacterial and viral communities.

Until recently, the idea that genetics plays a significant role in obesity had some traction: researchers hypothesized that evolutionary pressures may have favored genes that predisposed some people to hold on to more calories in the form of added fat. Today, however, most scientists believe we can't blame DNA for making us overweight. "The prevalence of obesity started to rise quite sharply in the 1980s," says Nestle. "Genetics did not change in that 10- or 20-year period. So genetics can only account for part of it."

Instead, researchers are beginning to attribute much of the variation to the trillions of tiny creatures that line the coiled tubes inside our midriffs. The microbes in our intestines digest some of the tough or fibrous matter that our stomachs cannot break down, releasing a flow of additional calories in the process. But different species and strains of microbes vary in how effective they are at releasing those extra calories, as well as how generously they share them with their host human.

In 2013, researchers in Jeffrey Gordon's lab at Washington University tracked down pairs of twins of whom one was obese and one lean. He took gut microbes from each, and inserted them into the intestines of microbe-free mice. Mice that got microbes from an obese twin gained weight; the others remained lean, despite eating the exact same diet. "That was really striking," said Peter Turnbaugh, who used to work with Gordon and now heads his own lab at the University of California, San Francisco. "It suggested for the first time that these microbes might actually be contributing to the energy that we gain from our diet."

The diversity of microbes that each of us hosts is as individual as a fingerprint and yet easily transformed by diet and our environment. And though it is poorly understood, new findings about how our gut microbes affect our overall energy balance are emerging almost daily. For example, it seems that medications that are known to cause weight gain might be doing so by modifying the populations of microbes in our gut. In November 2015, researchers showed that risperidone, an antipsychotic drug, altered the gut microbes of mice who received it. The microbial changes slowed the animals' resting metabolisms, causing them to increase their body mass by 10 per cent in two months. The authors liken the effects to a 30-lb weight gain over one year for an average human, which they say would be the equivalent of an extra cheeseburger every day.

FURTHER READING

FREEZE-DRIED POOP PILLS BEING TESTED FOR OBESITY TREATMENT

Trial will offer some of the first human data on microbe transplants and weight.

Other evidence suggests that gut microbes might affect weight gain in humans as they do in lab animals. Take the case of the woman who gained more than 40 lbs after receiving a transplant of gut microbes from her overweight teenage daughter. The transplant successfully treated the mother's intestinal infection of Clostridium difficile, which had resisted antibiotics. But as of the study's publication last year, she hadn't been able to shed the excess weight through diet or exercise. The only aspect of her physiology that had changed was her gut microbes.

All of these factors introduce a disturbingly large margin of error for an individual who is trying, like Nash, Haelle and millions of others, to count calories. The discrepancies between the number on the label and the calories that are actually available in our food, combined with individual variations in how we metabolize that food, can add up to much more than the 200 calories a day that nutritionists often advise cutting in order to lose weight. Nash and Haelle can do everything right and still not lose weight.

Calorie counter alternatives

None of this means that the calorie is a useless concept. Inaccurate as they are, calorie counts remain a helpful guide to relative energy values: standing burns more calories than sitting; cookies contain more calories than spinach. But the calorie is broken in many ways, and there's a strong case to be made for moving our food accounting system away from that one particular number. It's time to take a more holistic look at what we eat.

Wilbur Atwater worked in a world with different problems. At the beginning of the 20th century, nutritionists wanted to ensure people were well fed. The calorie was a useful way to quantify a person's needs. Today, excess weight affects more people than hunger; 1.9 billion adults around the world are considered overweight, 600 million of them obese. Obesity brings with it a higher risk of diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. This is a new challenge, and it is likely to require a new metric.

One option is to focus on something other than energy intake. Like satiety, for instance. Picture a 300-calorie slice of cheesecake: it is going to be small. "So you're going to feel very dissatisfied with that meal," says Susan Roberts. If you eat 300 calories of a chicken salad instead, with nuts, olive oil and roasted vegetables, "you've got a lot of different nutrients that are hitting all the signals quite nicely," she says. "So you're going to feel full after you've eaten it. That fullness is going to last for several hours."

As a result of her research, Roberts has created a weight-loss plan that focuses on satiety rather than a straight calorie count. The idea is that foods that help people feel satisfied and full for longer should prevent them from overeating at lunch or searching for a snack soon after cleaning the table. Whole apples, white fish and Greek yoghurt are on her list of the best foods for keeping hunger at bay.

There's evidence to back up this idea: in one study, Roberts and colleagues found that people lost three times more weight by following her satiety plan compared with a traditional calorie-based one—and kept it off. Harvard nutritionist David Ludwig, who also proposes evaluating food on the basis of satiety instead of calories, has shown that teens given instant oats for breakfast consumed 650 more calories at lunch than their peers who were given the same number of breakfast calories in the form of a more satisfying omelette and fruit. Meanwhile, Adam Drewnowski, a epidemiologist at the University of Washington, has his own calorie upgrade: a nutrient density score. This system ranks food in terms of nutrition per calorie, rather than simply overall caloric value. Dark green vegetables and legumes score highly. Though the details of their approaches differ, all three agree: changing how we measure our food can transform our relationship with it for the better.

Individual consumers could start using these ideas now. But persuading the food industry and its watchdogs, such as the FDA, to adopt an entirely new labelling system based on one of these alternative measures is much more of a challenge. Consumers are unlikely to see the calorie replaced by Roberts's or Drewnowski's units on their labels any time soon; nonetheless, this work is an important reminder that there are other ways to measure food, ones that might be more useful for both weight loss and overall health.

Down the line, another approach might eventually prove even more useful: personalized nutrition. Since 2005, David Wishart of the University of Alberta has been cataloguing the hundreds of thousands of chemical compounds in our bodies, which make up what's known as the human metabolome. There are now 42,000 chemicals on his list, and many of them help digest the food we eat. His food metabolome database is a more recent effort: it contains about 30,000 chemicals derived directly from food. Wishart estimates that both databases may end up listing more than a million compounds. "Humans eat an incredible variety of foods," he says. "Then those are all transformed by our body. And they're turned into all kinds of other compounds." We have no idea what they all are, he adds—or what they do.

According to Wishart, these chemicals and their interactions affect energy balance. He points to research demonstrating that high-fructose corn syrup and other forms of added fructose (as opposed to fructose found in fruit) can trigger the creation of compounds that lead us to form an excess of fat cells, unrelated to additional calorie consumption. "If we cut back on some of these things," he says, "it seems to revert our body back to more appropriate, arguably less efficient metabolism, so that we aren't accumulating fat cells in our body."

It increasingly seems that there are significant variations in the way each one of us metabolizes food, based on the tens of thousands—perhaps millions—of chemicals that make up each of our metabolomes. This, in combination with the individuality of each person's gut microbiome, could lead to the development of personalized dietary recommendations. Wishart imagines a future where you could hold up your smartphone, snap a picture of a dish, and receive a verdict on how that food will affect you as well as how many calories you'll extract from it. Your partner might receive completely different information from the same dish.

Or maybe the focus will shift to tweaking your microbial community: if you're trying to lose weight, perhaps you will curate your gut microbiome so as to extract fewer calories without harming your overall health. Peter Turnbaugh cautions that the science is not yet able to recommend a particular set of microbes, let alone how best to get them inside your gut, but he takes comfort from the fact that our microbial populations are "very plastic and very malleable"—we already know that they change when we take antibiotics, when we travel and when we eat different foods. "If we're able to figure this out," he says, "there is the chance that someday you might be able to tailor your microbiome" to get the outcomes you want.

None of these alternatives is ready to replace the calorie tomorrow. Yet the need for a new system of food accounting is clear. Just ask Haelle. "I'm kind of pissed at the scientific community for not coming up with something better for us," she confesses, recalling a recent meltdown at TGI Friday's as she navigated a confusing datasheet to find a low-calorie dish she could eat. There should be a better metric for people like her and Nash—people who know the health risks that come with being overweight and work hard to counter them. And it's likely there will be. Science has already shown that the calorie is broken. Now it has to find a replacement.