Sunday, October 19, 2008

Τίποτα πια δεν είναι όπως πριν


Του IGNACIO RAMONET

Οι σεισμοί σε χρηματιστήρια και τράπεζες έφεραν ένα βήμα πιο κοντά το τέλος της εποχής του καπιταλισμού. Τα θεμέλια του διεθνούς χρηματοπιστωτικού συστήματος ταρακουνήθηκαν, ενώ ο κίνδυνος της γενικευμένης κατάρρευσης ελλοχεύει. Τίποτα δεν θα είναι όπως πριν. Το κράτος επιστρέφει. Οπως σημειώνει ο νομπελίστας Πολ Σάμουελσον, «η κατάρρευση της Γουόλ Στριτ αντιπροσωπεύει για τον καπιταλισμό ό,τι και η πτώση της ΕΣΣΔ για τον κομμουνισμό».


1 Για τριάντα χρόνια, οι φονταμενταλιστές της αγοράς επαναλάμβαναν ότι ο Ρέιγκαν («το κράτος δεν είναι λύση») είχε δίκιο, ότι η παγκοσμιοποίηση ήταν επιτυχημένη, ότι ο χρηματοπιστωτικός καπιταλισμός έχτιζε για όλους τον επίγειο παράδεισο. Εκαναν, όμως, λάθος.

Η «χρυσή εποχή» της Γουόλ Στριτ έχει παρέλθει ανεπιστρεπτί. Μια εποχή ανεύθυνων απορυθμίσεων, κακοδιαχείρισης, με κυρίαρχη την αριστοκρατία των τραπεζιτών, τους «άρχοντες του κόσμου», όπως τους κατήγγειλε το 1987 ο αμερικανός δημοσιογράφος Τομ Γουλφ.

Χειραγώγηση, credit-default swaps, hedge funds... Σαν τη χολέρα, ο πυρετός του κέρδους μόλυνε όλον τον πλανήτη. Οι αγορές έπαιρναν φωτιά, από την υπερπροσφορά ρευστότητας, η οποία ευνόησε ακόμα περισσότερο την κερδοσκοπία και την αύξηση των τιμών.

2 Η παγκοσμιοποίηση οδήγησε την παγκόσμια οικονομία να γίνει εικονική και άυλη. Η χρηματοπιστωτική σφαίρα ξεπέρασε τα 250 τρισεκ. ευρώ, δηλαδή έξι φορές περισσότερο από τα πραγματικά πλούτη όλου του κόσμου.

Και ξαφνικά, η γιγάντια φούσκα έσκασε. Περισσότερο από 1 τρισεκατομμύριο ευρώ εξαφανίστηκαν! Πέντε από τα μεγαλύτερα ιδρύματα -πυλώνες του συστήματος- κατέρρευσαν: η Lehman Brothers πτώχευσε, η Bear Stearns εξαγοράστηκε από τη Morgan Chase, η Merrill Lynch ανήκει πια στην Bank of America, ενώ δύο ακόμη, οι Goldman Sachs και Morgan Stanley, υποβιβάστηκαν σε απλές, εμπορικές τράπεζες.

Ολος ο χρηματοπιστωτικός μηχανισμός δεν έχει πια καμία αξιοπιστία. Από αυτό δεν υποφέρουν μόνο οι επιχειρηματικές τράπεζες αλλά και οι κεντρικές οι εμπορικές τράπεζες, τα ταμιευτήρια και οι ασφαλιστικές εταιρείες.

3 Το σκάνδαλο των «βρόμικων υποθηκών» (subprimes) ήταν γνωστό σε όλους. Αυτά είχαν καταγγελθεί, εδώ και πολύ καιρό, χωρίς, να προκαλέσουν κάποια αντίδραση. Γιατί το «έγκλημα» έφερνε κέρδη σε πολύ κόσμο.

4 Η νεοφιλελεύθερη κυβέρνηση του Μπους υποχρεώθηκε να απαρνηθεί το δόγμα αυτό και να χρησιμοποιήσει μαζικά τον κρατικό παρεμβατισμό.

Οι κύριοι φορείς της στεγαστικής πίστωσης, Fannie Mae και Freddie Mac, κρατικοποιήθηκαν, όπως και η μεγαλύτερη ασφαλιστική εταιρεία του κόσμου, η American International Group (AIG). Και ο υπουργός Οικονομικών Χένρι Πόλσον (πρώην πρόεδρος της Goldman Sachs) αναγκάστηκε να προτείνει σχέδιο σωτηρίας 500 δισ. ευρώ, που το κράτος. Δηλαδή ο φορολογούμενος πληρώνει.

5 Η αμερικανική κυβέρνηση δεν δίστασε να δώσει χείρα βοηθείας στους «banksters»(1). Πριν από λίγους μήνες, ο Μπους αρνήθηκε να υπογράψει νόμο, που θα πρόσφερε ιατροφαρμακευτική κάλυψη σε εννέα εκατομμύρια φτωχά παιδιά. «Αχρηστο έξοδο», το χαρακτήρισε. Σήμερα, για να βοηθήσει τους απατεώνες της Γουόλ Στριτ κάνει τα πάντα. Ο κόσμος έχει έρθει ανάποδα: Σοσιαλισμός για τους πλούσιους και καπιταλισμός για τους υπόλοιπους.

6 Η καταστροφή ήρθε σε μια χρονική στιγμή που η ευρωπαϊκή αριστερά υποφέρει από πλήρες ιδεολογικό κενό και δεν διαθέτει κανένα σχέδιο για να εκμεταλλευτεί πολιτικά την κρίση. Ιδίως η σοσιαλδημοκρατία, η οποία έχει και η ίδια από καιρό μολυνθεί από νεοφιλελεύθερες θέσεις και που μοιάζει να βρίσκεται σήμερα σε κατάσταση σοκ.

Οταν θα έπρεπε, περισσότερο από ποτέ -εμπνεόμενη από τη ζωτικότητα της λατινοαμερικανικής αριστεράς- να δείξει νέα τόλμη και δημιουργικότητα.

7 Πόσο θα διαρκέσει η κρίση; «Είκοσι χρόνια εάν είμαστε τυχεροί ή λιγότερο από δέκα εάν οι αρχές δείξουν αυστηρότητα»(2), προβλέπει ο βρετανός νεοφιλελεύθερος αρθρογράφος, Μάρτιν Γουλφ.

8 Αν υπήρχε πολιτική λογική, το πλαίσιο αυτό έπρεπε να ευνοήσει την εκλογή του Μπάρακ Ομπάμα. Είναι πιθανόν, τότε, όπως ο Ρούσβελτ το '33, ο νέος πρόεδρος να λανσάρει ένα νέο « New Deal», στη βάση ενός νεοκεϊνσιανισμού, που θα επικυρώσει την επιστροφή του κράτους στην οικονομία. Κάτι που θα φέρει κοινωνική δικαιοσύνη.

Ετσι, το πιο άγριο και παράλογο στάδιο της παγκοσμιοποίησης θα τελειώσει.

(1) Από τις λέξεις banks και gangsters.

(2) «Financial Times», Λονδίνο, 23-9-08.

ΚΥΡΙΑΚΑΤΙΚΗ - 19/10/2008


Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Magenhormon stimuliert das Gehirn

Das Hormon Ghrelin wird im Magen gebildet, wenn die Energiebilanz negativ ist, also schon länger nichts mehr gegessen wurde. Das Hormon löst im Gehirn eine Hungerempfindung aus. Nach der Nahrungsaufnahme sinkt der Ghrelin-Spiegel wieder ab, um dann regelmäßig wieder anzusteigen. Die Verbindung zwischen Magen und Gehirn durch das Polypeptid legt nahe, dass man hier möglicherweise ein Mittel gefunden hat, um das Hungergefühl von Übergewichtigen zu stoppen, indem die Produktion von Ghrelin im Magen unterbunden wird. Allerdings könnte, wie nun US-Wissenschaftler herausgefunden haben, die Unterdrückung des Hormons auch unerwünschte psychische Folgen haben.

Für ihre Studie, die in Nature Neuroscience erschienen ist, haben die Wissenschaftler Mäuse auf Diät gesetzt. Sie erhielten 10 Tage lang nur 60 Prozent der normalen Kalorien. In dieser Zeit nahm der Ghrelin-Spiegel um das Vierfache zu. In den Schwimm- und Labyrinthtests zeigten die Mäuse weniger Angst und Zeichen von Depression als die der Kontrollgruppe, die so viel fressen konnten, wie sie wollten. Die beobachteeten Unterschiede können nicht, so die Wissenschaftler, auf Unterschiede in der sensomotorischen Koordination, der allgemeinen lokomotorischen Aktivität oder des Körpergewichts zurück geführt werden.

Auch wenn Mäusen Ghrelin injiziert wurde, Zeigten sie in den Experimenten kurz darauf weniger Symptome von Angst und Depression als die Mäuse, denen nur eine Kochsalzlösung injiziert wurde. Bei Mäusen, die chronischem Stress ausgesetzt wurden, was zu anhaltenden Verhaltensveränderungen führt, die mit Antidepressiva behandelt werden können, wird offenbar mehr Ghrelin ausgeschüttet. Dadurch nehmen sie mehr Nahrung auf, was ihnen helfen könnte, so vermuten die Wissenschaftler, mit dem Stress besser zurechtzukommen und Depression sowie Angst nicht zu stark werden zu lassen. Möglicherweise spielt der beoachtete neurobiologische Mechanismus zwischen dem Magenhormon und dem Gehirn auch eine Rolle bei der Magersucht (Anorexia nervosa). Menschen, die darunter leiden, haben erhöhte Ghrelin-Werte.

Die antidepressive Wirkung von Ghrelin könnte nach Ansicht der Wissenschaftler Orexin-Rezeptoren im Hippocampus aktivieren. In Mausmodellen, die Orexin nicht aufnehmen können, lassen sich zumindest die antidepressiven Wirkungen des Hormons nicht feststellen. Aus anderen Untersuchungen ist bekannt, dass Orexin auch mit Fettleibigkeit zu tun hat. Menschen mit vielen Orexin-Rezeptoren bewegen sich häufiger und sind deswegen schlanker.

Florian Rötzer17.06.2008

http://www.heise.de/tp/blogs/3/109516

Thursday, June 12, 2008

The Triumph of Triviality

http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=177&Itemid=1

 

Written by John F. Schumaker   


The latest results of the cultural indoctrination stakes are in. Triviality leads, followed closely by frivolity, superficiality, and mindless distraction. Vanity looks great, while profundity is bringing up the rear. Pettiness is powering ahead, along with passivity and indifference. Curiosity lost interest, wisdom was scratched, and critical thought had to be put down. Ego is running wild. Attention span continues to shorten and survival is a long shot.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. Half a century ago, humanistic thinkers were heralding a great awakening that would usher in a golden age of enlightened living. Pathfinders like Erich Fromm, Carl Rogers, Abraham Maslow, Rollow May, and Viktor Frankl were laying the groundwork for a new social order distinguished by enlightened living. This tantalizing vision was the antithesis of our society of blinkered narcissists and hypnogogic materialists. Dumbness was not our destiny. Planetary annihilation was not the plan. By the 21st century, we were supposed to be the rarefied “people of tomorrow,” inhabiting a sagacious and wholesome world.

Erich Fromm's 1955 tome The Sane Society signaled the debut of the one-dimensional “marketing character” -- a robotic all-consuming creature who is “well-fed, well-entertained, but passive, unalive, and lacking in feeling.” Yet Fromm was confident that we could avoid further descent into the fatuous. He forecast a Utopian society based on the principle of “humanistic communitarianism” that would nurture our higher “existential needs.”

In his 1961 book, On Becoming a Person, Carl Rogers wrote “When I look at the world I am pessimistic, but when I look at people I am optimistic.” While acknowledging consumer culture's seductive invitation to disown our higher selves and enter the pointless dreamland of trinkets and desire, he believed that we -- the “people of tomorrow” – would minister over a growth-oriented society, with “growth” defined as the full and positive unfolding of human potential.

We would be upwardly driven toward authenticity, social equality, and the welfare of coming generations. We would revere nature, realize the unimportance of material things, and hold a healthy skepticism about technology and science. An anti-institutional vision would enable us to fend off dehumanizing bureaucratic and corporate authority as we united in an ongoing realization of our “higher needs.”

One of the most famous concepts in the history of psychology is Abraham Maslow's “Hierarchy of Needs,” often illustrated by a pyramid. Once widely accepted, it was also inspired by a faith in innate positive human potential. Maslow claimed that, rather than being materialistic by design, human beings naturally switch attention to higher-level needs (e.g., intellectual, spiritual, social, existential) once they have met lower-level material ones. In moving up the pyramid, and “becoming,” we channel ourselves toward wisdom, beauty, truth, love, gratitude, and respect for life. Instead of a society that catered to, and thus maintained, the lowest common denominator, Maslow imagined one that prospered in the course of promoting mature “self-actualized” individuals.

But something happened along the way. The pyramid collapsed. Human potential took a back seat to economic potential. Self-actualization gave way to self-absorption on a spectacular scale. A pulp culture flourished as the masses were successfully duped into making a home amidst an ever-changing smorgasbord of false material needs.

Operating on the principle that triviality is more profitable than substance, and dedicating itself to unceasing material overkill, consumer culture has become a fine-tuned instrument for resisting upward growth, and keeping people incomplete, shallow, and dehumanized. Materialism continues to gain ground, even in the face of impending eco-apocalypse.

Pulp culture is a feast of tinsel and veneer. The ideal citizen is hollow, an empty tract through which gadgets can pass quickly, largely undigested, so there is always space for more. Reality races by as a blur of images, surface impressions, and consumer choices that never feel quite real. We know it as the fast lane and whip ourselves to keep apace.

Rollo May described it accurately in his 1953 book Man’s Search for Himself: “It’s an ironic habit of human beings to run faster when they have lost their way.” So it’s largely business-as-usual even as the sky is falling.

Some critics did predict the triumph of the trivial. In his 1957 essay “A Theory of Mass Culture,” Dwight MacDonald foresaw our “debased trivial culture that voids both the deep realities and also the simple spontaneous pleasures,” adding that “the masses, debauched by several generations of this sort of thing, in turn come to demand trivial cultural products.” Today, the demand for triviality has never been higher, and our tolerance for seriousness has never been lower.

In this dense fog, the meaningful and meaningless can easily get reversed. Losers look like winners, and the lofty and ludicrous get confused. The caption under a recent ad for men’s underwear read “I’ve got something that’s good for your body, mind, and soul.” Fashion statements become a form of literacy, brand names father pride, and celebrity drivel becomes compelling.

Not even God has been spared. Once a potent commander of attention and allegiance, God has been gelded into a sort of celestial lap dog who fetches our wishes for this-world success. Nothing is so great that it can’t be reconceived or rephrased in order to render it insubstantial, non-threatening, or, best of all, entertaining.

The age of trivialization has left its mark on marriage, family, and love. In a recent A. C. Nielsen Co. survey, when asked to choose between spending time with their fathers and watching television, 54 percent of American 4-6 year-olds chose television. The same study reported that American parents spent an average of 3.5 minutes per week in “meaningful conversation” with their children, while the children themselves watch 28 hours of television per week. To which we can add cell phones, computer games, and other techno-toys that are inducing a state of digital autism in our young people.

Out of this cock-up comes the most pressing question of our age. Can a highly trivialized culture, marooned between fact and fiction, and dizzy with distraction and denial, elevate its values and priorities in order to respond effectively to the multiple planetary emergencies looming today? Empty talk and token gestures aside, it doesn’t appear to be happening.

Some of the great humanists felt that there are limits to a culture’s ability to suppress our higher needs. They assumed that we are ethical creatures by nature and that we will do the right thing when necessary -- we will transcend materialism given the freedom to do so. That seems a bit far-fetched given the ethical coma in which we find ourselves. Yet the ultimate test is whether or not we can do the right thing by the planet and for future generations.

Ethics and politics have never sat well together. When ‘citizens’ became ‘consumers’, political life became an exercise in keeping the customer happy. The marketing-style democracies we have today have never been tested with planetary issues, such as global warming and climate change, demanding radical and unsettling solutions. In the race against the clock, politicians appear almost comical as they try not to disturb the trivial pursuits propping up our dangerously obsolete socio-economic system.

Global calamity is forcing us into a post-political era in which ethically driven individuals and groups race ahead of the political class. Soon centre-stage will belong to culture change strategists who are able to inspire leaps of consciousness independently of hapless follow-the-leader politics. One such person is Jan Lundberg (www.culturechange.org). Lundberg is an environmental activist and a long-standing voice for pre-emptive culture change who understands that hyper-consumerism trivializes reality and numbs people, even to prospects of their own destruction. In his essay “Interconnectedness of All in the Universe,” he writes: “Unless we broaden and deepen our perception of both the universe and our fellow members of society, we all may perish in persisting to manipulate each other and our ecosystem with materialism and exploitation.”

Culture change strategists all agree about the urgent need to promote “global consciousness,” or “cosmic consciousness” -- a broad worldview with a high level of awareness of the interrelatedness and sacredness of all living things. It is thought that such a universality of mind leads not only to intellectual illumination, but also to heightened moral sensibilities, compassion, and greater community responsibility.

Behind the scenes are some noteworthy organizations working toward the goal of global consciousness, including The World Commission on Global Consciousness and Spirituality (www.globalspirit.org) whose members consist of Nobel laureates, culture theorists, futurists, and spiritual leaders including The Dalai Lama. The group points out the huge backlog of positive human potential that is ready to unleash itself once we assume control and carve healthier cultural pathways for people’s energies. According to their mission statement, the fate of humankind and the ecosystem lies in our ability over the next couple of decades to revise our cultural blueprints in order to foster global consciousness and create new and more “mindful” political and economic models.

Even in the formal education system, a small but growing number of teachers are incorporating a “Global Awareness” perspective, aimed at dissolving cultural barriers and building a sense of global community (e.g., www.globalawareness.com). Some are even encouraging a “global grammar” that links students both to other human beings and to the entire planet.

In the war against trivialization some groups speak of “planetization” as the expansive worldview that can slow our cultural death march. It was French philosopher, paleontologist and Jesuit priest, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, who coined this term in calling for a global mind that fused our ecological, spiritual, and political energies, and thereby paved the way for harmonious living and lasting peace. The organization Planetization Rising (www.planetization.com) sees this next phase as the only means by which we can ascend to a higher knowledge and thereby find a life-sustaining path for ourselves and the Earth: “It’s the next watershed mark in our evolutionary journey which alone can provide us with the empowerment and insight needed to overcome the gathering forces of ecological devastation, greed, and war which now threaten our survival.”

The cultural indoctrination race is not over. The losers are still winning and the odds for a revolution of consciousness are no more than even. But is there an alternative other than to drown in our own shallowness?

* * * * *

John F. Schumaker is a Christchurch, New Zealand psychologist whose latest book is In Search of Happiness: Understanding an Endangered State of Mind (Penguin NZ).

Further reading:

"Interconnectedness of all in the universe: Doom and gloom? Your perception calls the tune" by Jan Lundberg, Culture Change Letter #74, September 8, 2004
culturechange.org

"Can the ecopsychologically disturbed citizenry question legitimacy of rulers?" (first of two parts) by Jan Lundberg, Culture Change Letter #68, July 14, 2004
culturechange.org

"Factors of instability for a disturbed population: Are Americans fukked?" (second of two parts) by Jan Lundberg, Culture Change Letter #69, July 24, 2004
culturechange.org

 

Monday, June 9, 2008

How the War Will End in Iraq

All eyes are on the U.S. presidential campaign, in which the
candidates have taken quite different positions concerning the war in
Iraq. This is the wrong place to look. I believe it is fairly certain
that Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. And
his views of the war in Iraq are almost the polar opposite of those of
his rival, John McCain. Obama was opposed to the U.S. invasion from
the outset. He believes continuing the war is harmful to everyone - to
the United States, to Iraq, to the rest of the world. And he says he
will seek to withdraw all U.S. troops in sixteen months.

Once in office, Obama will no doubt find that the definition of
withdrawing troops will be a matter of great controversy in the United
States, and that it will be less easy than he claims to achieve his
objective, were it a matter only of the internal politics of the
United States. However, ending the war in Iraq will not be up to
Obama, or up to the United States. The key to ending the war in Iraq
is what happens in Iraqi politics, not in U.S. politics.

I shall make the rash prediction that sometime in 2009 (or 2010 at the
very latest), the Prime Minister of Iraq will be Muqtada al-Sadr, and
that al-Sadr will bring the war to an end. Here is what is most likely
to happen. The world media remind us each day of what are now seen as
definitive cleavages in the Iraqi body politic. There are three main
ethnic groups - the Shi'a, the Sunni Arabs, and the Kurds. Each of
them is primarily located in a specific geographic zone. The main
exception is the capital city of Baghdad, which has mixed Sunni-Shi'a
population, although even here they are geographically concentrated in
specific parts of the city.

In addition, as we all seem to know by now, each of these zones has
internal divisions. There are multiple Shi'a parties, who each seem to
have a militia at its disposal, and have long-standing antagonisms.
The two principal ones are the group led by al-Sadr and the one known
as SCIRI, led by Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim. The Sunni areas have a less
clearcut picture. There are the sheikhs and the ex-Baathists,
connected with various politicians in the Iraqi legislature. And there
is also a small but important group of jihadists, largely non-Iraqi,
linked somehow to al-Qaeda. And in the Kurdish zone, there are two
competing parties, plus Christian and Turkmen minorities.

Actually, this kind of complicated array is no more diverse than one
finds in many countries all around the world. Think of how one would
describe the array of groups involved in U.S. politics. So, if we are
to understand what is likely to happen in Iraq, we have to cut through
this diversity to get at the most salient issue or issues.

It seems to me that the most salient issue in Iraq today for Iraqis is
whether or not Iraq will survive as a unified state and as one that
will be able to recover its strong position, economically and
geopolitically, in the region. Who is against this? Actually, there
are only two groups who are seriously hostile to a renewed and
revivified Iraqi nationalism - the Kurds and the Shi'a forces led by
al-Hakim. The latter dream of an autonomous, indeed independent,
southern Iraq, which they would dominate and within which there are
rich oil resources. They want to cut all ties to the Sunni regions.
And they want to weaken seriously the al-Sadr camp which, although it
is strong in that region, is virtually uncontested in Baghdad. Were
Baghdad cut off from that region, the al-Hakim camp believe they could
eventually destroy the al-Sadr camp.

The Kurds of course dream of an independent Kurdish state. But they
are eminently pragmatic people. They know that a landlocked Kurdish
state would find it hard to survive. Turkey would probably invade, and
so might Iran. The United States would probably do very little, and
would be quite embarrassed by it all. And Israel would be irrelevant.
So the Kurds are clearly ready to settle for continuing de facto
autonomy within a unified Iraq. To be sure, they are still quarreling
with the others over who would control Kirkuk. I doubt that they will
get Kirkuk, and I suspect that the most that they will do about it is
to grumble loudly.

Now let us look at the others. The Sunni Arab forces are also, by and
large, quite realistic. They realize that it is impossible to return
to an Iraq that they govern unilaterally. What they really want now is
their fair share of the state political machinery and of its resources
(since their zone has virtually no oil, at least up to now). While
they cannot hope to have a Sunni-dominated Iraq, they can hope to have
an Iraq restored to its former prominent role in the Arab world, and
they would clearly benefit, individually and collectively, from such a
restoration.

So, in the end, the key group is the Shi'a. Muqtada al-Sadr has been
quite clear from the beginning that he wants a unified Iraq. For one
thing, this is the only way his people in Baghdad can survive and
flourish. For another, he believes in Iraq. To be sure, he and his
followers suffered mightily under the Baathists. But he is open to
dealing with reformed and much weakened Baathists. And he has
demonstrated this clearly over the last two years. He gave moral
support to the people of Falluja when they were under assault by the
U.S. forces two years ago. And they reciprocated in the recent
fighting in Baghdad, when his forces were under assault by the same
U.S. forces.

That leaves one major player, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the
most important spiritual leader of the Shi'a in Iraq. Al-Sistani has
played a careful political game ever since the U.S. invasion. His
priority has been to hold the Shi'a together. Most of the time he says
nothing. But at crucial moments he is ready to intervene. When the
U.S. proconsul of yesteryear, L. Paul Bremer, wanted to create an
Iraqi government more or less by his fiat, al-Sistani insisted on
elections, and the United States had to back down. As a result, he got
a government dominated by the Shi'a. When too much fighting occurred
between the al-Hakim camp and the al-Sadr camp, he brokered a calm.

What does al-Sistani want? Theologically, he wants Najaf, his site, to
become once again the theological center of the Shi'a religious world,
as opposed to Qom in Iran, which has come to assume this role,
especially since the Iranian revolution of 1979. Geopolitically, this
requires a strong Iraq, capable of relating to Iran as an equal. And
to get a strong Iraq, he needs a united Iraq, and essentially one that
gets the U.S. invaders out.

Currently, the United States is trying to get Iraq to sign a long-term
military accord that would guarantee U.S. bases indefinitely. The
current prime minister of Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki, is trying to maneuver
this without a vote even by parliament. Muqtada al-Sadr is calling for
a referendum. And so, it seems, is al-Sistani. A referendum, of
course, guarantees a defeat for the accord.

So, in 2009, it would seem logical that al-Sadr, al-Sistani, the
Sunni, and even the Kurds will come together on a plank of national
unity and U.S. total withdrawal without long-term bases. Muqtada
al-Sadr will implement this as Prime Minister. Al-Hakim will be
unhappy, but kept in line by al-Sistani. The Iranians will be
ambivalent. The U.S. public and pundits will be amazed at the relative
calm in Iraq. And President Obama and the Pentagon won't have too much
choice. They will graciously assent. They may even proclaim "victory."

by Immanuel Wallerstein

[Copyright by Immanuel Wallerstein, distributed by Agence Global. For
rights and permissions, including translations and posting to
non-commercial sites, and contact: rights@agenceglobal.com,
1.336.686.9002 or 1.336.286.6606. Permission is granted to download,
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remains intact and the copyright note is displayed. To contact author,
write: immanuel.wallerstein@yale.edu.

Original article:http://fbc.binghamton.edu/commentr.htm

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Wird das Öl knapp?

Die einen schieben den starken Preisanstieg des Erdöls allein auf
Spekulation, doch andere warnen, dass die Förderung vielleicht schon
an ihre Grenzen gestoßen sein könnte
Der Ölpreis scheint kein Halten mehr zu kennen. Am Donnerstag musste
für die besten Sorten zeitweise über 135 US-Dollar das Fass gezahlt
werden. Zum Wochenende gingen die Preise wieder etwas zurück, aber für
ein Fass der Sorte Brent lieferbar im Juli mussten immer noch etwas
über 130 US-Dollar hingelegt werden. Anzeichen für einen ernsthaften
Preisrückgang sind nirgendwo auszumachen.

http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/27/27993/1.html

Friday, May 16, 2008

Doomsday Prognosis

http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm?page=viewNewsletterArticle&id=29

 

The European Commission has released remarkably forthright new guidelines for NATO. This organisation was originally formed as a defensive pact such that the signatory countries undertook to go to the defence of any member under attack. The rules were later made more proactive to broaden the scope for intervention: first, if any member were deemed under threat ; and later, if its vital interests were perceived to be at risk. In other words, it was transformed from a defensive into an offensive organisation. It is at the present time killing Afghans and planning to place troops on pipelines.

The EU report now makes the opening moves in a new conflict for control of the Arctic Ocean, mistakenly assuming that it has enormous hydrocarbon resources. In fact, its oil potential is severely limited for two principal reasons. First, it lies a long way from the prime source-rock developments which were in tropical regions, even if plate-tectonic movement have locally transported such rocks northward. Second, it has been subject to substantial vertical movements of the crust due to the weight of fluctuating ice-caps in the geological past, which have depressed such source-rocks as are present into the gas-generating window, and also adversely affected seal integrity, leading to remigration and dissipation.

Poor Norway, which is a NATO member, having a common boundary with Russia on the Arctic Ocean, is likely to find itself embroiled.

The report also calls for the deployment of pipeline troops around the world. NATO is in addition endeavouring to bring the Ukraine into its orbit, although this is seen with reason as a threatening gesture by Russia which may remember the eastward thrust of Nazi Germany in its quest for lebensraum (living space), eyeing the rich agricultural lands of the Ukraine.

The report furthermore draws attention to new immigrant pressures on Europe as famines strike other regions due to dwindling crops, falling water supply and exploding populations. It points out that the population of Europe (including Russia) makes up 11% of the world’s 6.7 billion, having an average age of 39, but on current trends expects its number to fall by 2050 to 7% with average age increasing to 47.

The report speaks of a vicious circle of degradation, migration and conflicts over territories and borders that threaten the political stability of countries and regions………where frustration and disenchantment breed ethnic and religious strife and political radicalisation.  It admits that competition for energy resources is already a cause of conflict, diplomatically avoiding mention of the invasion of Iraq.  

Britain’s new Chief Scientist has also pointed out the growing shortfall in world food supply. This is in part attributed to climate change, but dwindling energy supplies during the Second Half of the Age of Oil must exacerbate the situation.                           (See The Guardian Newspaper of March 10th for coverage)        

 

Peak oil date revised: 2007

 

According to the latest (May) ASPO newsletter, the peak for both regular and non-regular (tar sand, gas liquids, etc.) was revised to 2007. As far as I see this correctly, this is a major revision, the estimated peak year was 2010. This means the peak for conventional was 2005 and the peak total is now last year, 2007. If this is really the case, it is going to be very ugly, at least  as far as fuel and food prices concerns. Do we have to expect a new resource war?

 

http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter89_200805.pdf

laßt es im Boden

 

"Ich verrate Ihnen kein Geheimnis, dass wenn es einige neue Ölfunde gab, ich ihnen gesagt habe, nein, laßt es im Boden, mit der Gnade Gottes, unsere Kinder werden es brauchen"
King Abdullah von Saudi Arabien 12.04.2008 in einer Stellungnahme warum er Anweisung gegeben hat, einige jüngere Ölfunde in Saudi Arabien aktuell nicht zu entwickeln.

http://www.energiekrise.de/

the great turning and the cognitive surplus

 

Two very interesting articles:

 

Navigating The Great Turning From Empire To Earth Community

 

by David Korten, YES Magazine

 

" ... The second piece of the big picture is an unraveling of the social fabric of civilization that is a consequence of extreme and growing inequality. A world divided between the profligate and the desperate cannot long endure. It intensifies competition for Earth’s resources and drives an unraveling of the social fabric of mutual trust and caring essential to healthy social function.

... We cannot grow our way out of poverty. The only way to end poverty and heal our social divisions on an already over stressed planet is through a redistribution of resources from rich to poor and from nonessential to essential uses. Ooops. Can’t you just hear the right wing wind bags? Hey, that Korten guy, he’s talking about equity. He must be a communist."

 

and

 

Looking for the Mouse in Media:
Clay Shirky on Deploying the Cognitive Surplus for Public Good

 

by Jay Rosen, PressThink

 

"… This is a huge deposit of waking hours lived in front of the tube, a vast expanse of free time occupied for 40 years by commercial television. We’re at least starting to find the architecture of participation (Tim O’Reilly’s phrase) that would turn some of those couch-born hours into sentient activity, followed naturally by inter-activity, as in massively multiplayer games, which can lead (for some) to public works and social goods, as with “the online encyclopedia anyone can edit.”

Thursday, May 15, 2008

the price of oil and the energy slaves



...and it still extremely cheap. Just imagine that 159 liters gives approx. 1500 KWh and even with a conversion efficiency of 33% it is still 500KWh or 500 energy slaves working hard for 10 hours (5000 energy slave hours). So currently we pay something like 0.025 $ per energy slave hour, or 25 cents per working day. even 1000$ per barrel will still be almost free. Just imagine what a waste it is to use it for transporting 2000 kg of metal and 80 kg of meat.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

The Richard Heinberg Interview

What will happen to bacteria feeding on fossil fuel to grow
exponentially once they completely deplete their environment from
these resources.



Sunday, May 4, 2008

BEYOND OIL: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades

"When BEYOND OIL appeared in early 1986, it made some impact by
quantifying US economic and agricultural performance based on
precarious oil and natural gas dependence. The study got the attention
of some in the environmental, renewable energy and population control
communities, but not of those who steer the ship—the government and
the oil industry. With a respectable 11,000 copies sold, many
environmentalists have still not read nor heard of it. But as energy
and environment are more and more at the top of people's concerns,
BEYOND OIL will be a landmark work."

DISRUPTION WILL GO FAR BEYOND GAS LINES

BEYOND OIL forecasts that a major consequence of our oil vulnerability
is that between 2007 and 2025 the US will cease to be a food exporter,
due primarily to rising domestic demand, topsoil loss, food production
inefficiencies, and shortages of costly petroleum used in
agriculture—to say nothing of feared climate change problems. Less
food for export will be a great fiscal problem for the US, which
relies heavily on agricultural exports, but it will spell catastrophe
for many other hungry people in other parts of the world.

ECONOMISTS DON'T LIKE IT - IT CAN'T BE ALL BAD!

The BEYOND OIL model breaks new ground by exploring the stark
geophysical limits which counter the neoclassical economists'
assumption that there will be increased resource supply or resource
substitution in response to higher prices. Neoclassical economists
have trouble with BEYOND OIL due to its unrelenting focus on the real
limits of energy resources and the pure logic of the "Energy Profit
Ratio" and all of its implications.

RUNNING FASTER TO STAND STILL

Is the future already upon us? Oil people do not worry out loud about
our increasing difficulty in producing oil. BEYOND OIL makes the
observation that a 280% increase in drilling in 1985 compared to 1973
produced less oil than in 1973.

The seriousness of our domestic oil supply situation as analyzed in
BEYOND OIL can be appreciated by using a concrete example. Let's take
the besieged Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, not underestimating the
amount of oil there, which is perhaps the greatest hope for a huge
untapped US field. Based on the US Geological Survey's most optimistic
estimate of reserves, 9.2 billion barrels, your reviewer's calculation
is that this potential production would provide less than two years of
gasoline use in this country. [However, the average estimate of those
reserves used by the Interior Department is 3.2 billion barrels,
according to the NY Times & Rocky Mountain Institute on 9/5/90.]

ALTERNATIVES ARE NO PANACEA

The book also deals thoroughly with the question of alternatives to an
increasingly expensive, diminishing resource. "Alternatives" are dealt
with in accordance with the authors' setting off the word in quotation
marks. The main criterion of alternatives feasibility is their energy
profit ratio, which is poor for all alternatives compared to cheap
oil. Long before any alternatives can be put in place, the US will
have become totally at the mercy of OPEC. "None (of the alternative
fuels) currently has an energy profit ratio comparable to those of
domestic oil and gas or imported oil during the 1950s and '60s, when,
not by accident the US economy grew at its fastest rate ever" (p. 69).

DIMINISHING OIL = DIMINISHING WEALTH?

"We may already be seeing the effect of more expensive fuel on the
economy" (p. 241). Co-author Kaufman points the reviewer to proof of
that effect, such as today's generation being poorer than our
parents', with mostly two or more workers per family instead of
one-{worker households; real family income increased from 1940 and
peaked in 1973. GNP per capita could now be stagnant, but notes
Kaufman, this is rarely if ever understood as a function of resources.

REFORMS SUGGESTED

Since conservation and efficiency were downplayed, the Afterward by
Carrying Capacity (not affiliated with Carrying Capacity Network)
listed steps to improve where we can, with policy solutions to
alleviate fossil fuel dependence. Those reforms were in the areas of
population control, raising fuel taxes, pushing cogeneration and
energy conservation/efficiency, promoting sustainable agriculture, and
investing in renewable energy.

OIL-BASED AGRICULTURE DESTROYING OUR SOIL RESOURCE

BEYOND OIL does not see a technological fix to our energy challenge.
The Age of Oil will come to an end, inevitably, but clinging to our
addiction up to the end may result in tragic dislocation and
starvation, considering the population explosion and agriculture's
current dependence on fossil fuels. The prime entropic process brought
on by petroleum-intensive agriculture is the waste and loss of
nature's storehouse of energy: the topsoil.

Fossil fuels also power every component of production, packaging,
distribution, and consumption of our food supply. Whether we cope with
these inefficiencies will determine if we can export food in the
future.

BEYOND OIL: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades.
Third Edition (1991) ISBN 0-87081-242-4
John Gever, Robert Kaufman, David Skole, Charles Vorosmarty

Review: http://www.oilcrisis.org/BeyondOil/

Saturday, April 26, 2008

peak oil, global warming and the food crisis

As usual, and similarly as in the case of global warming, after
decades of denial the political and financial elites around the globe
realized that they can no longer ignore the physics, in this case the
geology of fossil hydrocarbons. Unfortunately it seems we lost too
much time (since the oil crisis in the '70s) that could have been used
for planning a transitional period. Now we see the results of the
first combined effect of the two phenomena: the food crisis. As oil
prices have gone through the roof, grain production was affected by
droughts, and even worse, as farmers switched to biofuel production as
a result of the euroamerican stupidity to subsidize this, millions
face starvation. Unfortunately, they still don't get it, it is
technofix and market solutions time all over again.

"The International Energy Agency was fully aware of Peak Oil some ten
years ago. Their World Energy
Outlook of 1998 showed that demand would outpace supply by 2010 save
for the entry of unidentified
unconventional which was a coded message for shortage. But when a
journalist decoded it, their masters in
the OECD Governments suppressed it such that the Unidentified
Unconventional became Conventional Non-
OPEC in the next issue.
Now they change their tune as the following makes clear. Presumably
the change of position reflects the
need of the OECD Governments to have an IEA umbrella under which to
face the uncomfortable reality,
which they can no longer ignore with oil trading above $100 a barrel
and production in most countries
running at capacity. The key IEA phrase is : we should leave oil
before it leaves us"

the whole ASPO newsletter is here:
http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter88_200804.pdf

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Where are the economists?

By Peter Pogany
Peak confirmed in spades
Mainstream economics hides behind the bush

The world is "effectively" in the throes of peak oil. Crude and
refined product prices trend upwards while markets become increasingly
sensitive to news and rumors.

Bad weather around ports, unrest in a third-world producer country or
populist grandstanding by its leader with geopolitical flourishes, a
pipeline accident, a closedown for repair, new worries about exchange
rates – any of these would be sufficient for the financial media to
report that "crude futures jump on supply concerns."

But then a single credible opinion (even if it is shrewdly calculated
and timed) can make the shadows vanish momentarily: "Crude prices
tumble. Is the oil bear market rally over? Past data support
pull-back."

What we are witnessing is heightened awareness to availability
combined with a growing potential to amplify small margins into major
gains or losses. This is what being "effectively" at the peak means –
the summary result of economic, business, technological,
institutional, and political realities upstaging the squabble over
geological uncertainties.

Economic dislocation (i.e., recession or worse) will not solve the problem.

As Keynes would remind us from beyond the grave, why would private
capital make huge commitments to building and expanding the
infrastructure for a more expensive substitute input (nonconventional
oil products) when aggregate demand is sluggish?

Perhaps public authority could help. Yes, but where would
industrialized country governments, already struggling with debt, get
the wherewithal to supply the world economy with the coveted
substitutes for conventional oil? New taxes could worsen growth
prospects (threat of deflation) and "priming the pump" (create and
spend money) could accelerate inflation. Sell national assets? (The
unattractiveness of either of these approaches does not, of course,
exclude their future application.)

The independent Energy Watch Group projects a major decline in global
oil consumption from the current level of over 80 million barrels per
day to 58 million by 2020 and 39 million by 2030 (not even half of
current consumption). Since presently observed trends exclude filling
the gap with nonexhaustible energy and green substitutes for refined
oil products, the upbeat predictions about vigorous economic growth
(accompanied by a slow but steady rise in oil consumption) during the
coming decades appear to be unrealistic. Will the straining of Middle
Eastern production capacities alter these projections, pushing out the
time of reckoning by a few years?

There is no precise answer but it is clear that already the current
generation will have to adapt to an oil-constrained world. Given all
this, wouldn't you expect to see the best and brightest of the
economics profession out there where menacing winds blow on the hectic
frontline of general human interest, fending for our civilization;
analyzing, passionately arguing, advising national governments and
international organizations, never letting the sense of urgency recede
from public consciousness?

If you entertained such expectations you would be speechless upon
looking at the Table of Contents of top journals in economics.

As robustly demonstrated by the latest editions of the American
Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Journal
of Economic Theory, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of
Econometrics, Econometric Theory, Review of Economic Studies, Journal
of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Monetary Economics,
Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Review
of Economics and Statistics, European Economic Review, and
International Economic Review, the looming oil emergency did not
unfetter the wings of creativity in the highest echelons of the
profession. (Ranking of journals was borrowed from Professor W.C.
Horrace, University if Syracuse.)

Does the bulk of academe still believe in the simplistic myth that,
thanks to the never-ceasing interaction between always-ready Mr.
Backstop Technology and irresistible Ms. Unregulated Market, the world
is already pregnant with a solution to its oil predicament, that the
everlasting neediness of material goods will never ever meet
unalterable physical constraints?

Dominant neo-classically (roughly neo-liberally) flavored core
convictions in economics imply that preoccupation with "peak oil" is
nothing more than fearing fear intensified into dreading dread. But if
you insist on an answer you may get it in a form of reproach: "You
don't have enough faith in the invisible hand." What young assistant
professor aspiring for tenure would risk such an explicit reprimand
from the department chairman?

Despite its ostensible diversity and seeming contentiousness,
economics remains stuck uniformly in a Newtonian worldview of
idealized cyclicality that shows the future as a symmetric reflection
of the past. Roland Barthes' "The Death of the Author" became
applicable to the Economist. The bottom line is that if a poll were
taken across mainstream professionals (a category that excludes the
refreshingly awakened group of ecological economists), it would
probably indicate an expected decline in crude prices to the vicinity
of $45/b by 2010.

The explanation that economic science is an ideology in the service of
vested interest does not hold. Encouraging policymakers in the belief
that nibbling on the margins, moral suasion, and lofty goal setting
can substitute for never-before-seen deep policy changes and drastic
programs harms everybody, including vested interest.

The global oil issue is perhaps more imminent and directly threatening
than the "environment." But where is the "Al Gore" of peak oil? At
least now we know where not to look.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Peter Pogany is an economist and author of the book "Rethinking the
World." Other articles by Pogany on Energy Bulletin.

-BA
Article found at :
http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=43046

Monday, April 21, 2008

The demolition of society

"To allow the market mechanism to be the sole director of the fate of
human beings and their natural environment, indeed, even of the amount
and use of purchasing power, would result in the demolition of
society. For the alleged commodity "labor power" cannot be shoved
about, used indiscriminately, or even left unused, without affecting
also the human indvidual who happens to be the bearer of this peculiar
commodity. In disposing of man's labor power the system would,
incidentally, dispose of the physical, psychological, and moral entity
"man" attached to that tag. Robbed of the protective covering of
cultural institutions, human beings would perish from the effects of
social exposure, they would die as the victims of acute social
dislocation through vice, perversion, crime, and starvation. Nature
would be reduced to its elements, neighborhoods and landscapes
defiled, military safety jeopardized, the power to produce food and
raw materials would be destroyed. Finally, the market administration
of purchasing power would periodically liquidate business enterprise,
for shortages and surfeits of money would prove as disastrous to
business as floods and droughts in primitive society. Undoubtedly,
labor, land, and money markets are essential to a market economy. But
no society could stand the effects of such a system of crude fictions
even for the shortest stretch of time unless its human and natural
substance as well as its business organization was protected against
the ravages of this satanic mill."

Polanyi, Karl (1944) The Great Transformation.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Exposed: the great GM crops myth

Major new study shows that modified soya produces 10 per cent less
food than its conventional equivalent

By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor, independent.co.uk
Sunday, 20 April 2008

Genetic modification actually cuts the productivity of crops, an
authoritative new study shows, undermining repeated claims that a
switch to the controversial technology is needed to solve the growing
world food crisis.

The study – carried out over the past three years at the University of
Kansas in the US grain belt – has found that GM soya produces about 10
per cent less food than its conventional equivalent, contradicting
assertions by advocates of the technology that it increases yields.

Professor Barney Gordon, of the university's department of agronomy,
said he started the research – reported in the journal Better Crops –
because many farmers who had changed over to the GM crop had "noticed
that yields are not as high as expected even under optimal
conditions". He added: "People were asking the question 'how come I
don't get as high a yield as I used to?'"

He grew a Monsanto GM soybean and an almost identical conventional
variety in the same field. The modified crop produced only 70 bushels
of grain per acre, compared with 77 bushels from the non-GM one.

The GM crop – engineered to resist Monsanto's own weedkiller, Roundup
– recovered only when he added extra manganese, leading to suggestions
that the modification hindered the crop's take-up of the essential
element from the soil. Even with the addition it brought the GM soya's
yield to equal that of the conventional one, rather than surpassing
it.

The new study confirms earlier research at the University of Nebraska,
which found that another Monsanto GM soya produced 6 per cent less
than its closest conventional relative, and 11 per cent less than the
best non-GM soya available.

The Nebraska study suggested that two factors are at work. First, it
takes time to modify a plant and, while this is being done, better
conventional ones are being developed. This is acknowledged even by
the fervently pro-GM US Department of Agriculture, which has admitted
that the time lag could lead to a "decrease" in yields.

But the fact that GM crops did worse than their near-identical non-GM
counterparts suggest that a second factor is also at work, and that
the very process of modification depresses productivity. The new
Kansas study both confirms this and suggests how it is happening.

A similar situation seems to have happened with GM cotton in the US,
where the total US crop declined even as GM technology took over. (See
graphic above.)

Monsanto said yesterday that it was surprised by the extent of the
decline found by the Kansas study, but not by the fact that the yields
had dropped. It said that the soya had not been engineered to increase
yields, and that it was now developing one that would.

Critics doubt whether the company will achieve this, saying that it
requires more complex modification. And Lester Brown, president of the
Earth Policy Institute in Washington – and who was one of the first to
predict the current food crisis – said that the physiology of plants
was now reaching the limits of the productivity that could be
achieved.

A former champion crop grower himself, he drew the comparison with
human runners. Since Roger Bannister ran the first four-minute mile
more than 50 years ago, the best time has improved only modestly .
"Despite all the advances in training, no one contemplates a
three-minute mile."

Last week the biggest study of its kind ever conducted – the
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for
Development – concluded that GM was not the answer to world hunger.

Professor Bob Watson, the director of the study and chief scientist at
the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, when asked if
GM could solve world hunger, said: "The simple answer is no."

Original article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/exposed-the-great-gm-crops-myth-812179.html?service=Print

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Unbewusste Entscheidungen im Gehirn

Ein Team von Wissenschaftlern entschlüsselt den neuronalen Prozess der Entscheidungsfindung

Schon etliche Sekunden bevor wir eine Entscheidung bewusst treffen, können erste Anzeichen der Absicht aus dem Gehirn ausgelesen werden. Dies zeigt eine aktuelle Studie von Wissenschaftlern des Max-Planck-Instituts für Kognitions- und Neurowissenschaften in Leipzig, der Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin sowie des Bernstein Zentrums für Computational Neuroscience Berlin. Die Forscher um John-Dylan Haynes haben mithilfe der Magnetresonanztomographie Veränderungen im Gehirn untersucht, die einer bewussten Entscheidung vorausgehen. "Viele Prozesse im Gehirn laufen unbewusst ab - wir wären sonst schon mit alltäglichen Aufgaben der Sinneswahrnehmung und Bewegungskoordination völlig überfordert. Von unseren Entscheidungen aber glauben wir in der Regel, dass wir sie bewusst fällen. Diese Annahme ist mit unserer Studie in Frage gestellt", sagt Haynes. (Nature Neuroscience, 13. April 2008)

Abb. Aus den grün markierten Regionen lässt sich die freie Entscheidung eines Probanden für einen linken oder rechten Knopfdruck vorhersagen. Dazu wird eine Mustererkennungssoftware darauf programmiert, aus den micro-Mustern der Hirnaktivität vorherzusagen, wie sich der Proband entscheiden wird. Der früheste Vorhersagezeitpunkt liegt sieben Sekunden vor dem "gefühlten" Zeitpunkt, zu dem sich der Proband zu entscheiden glaubt.

Bild: Prof. Dr. John-Dylan Haynes

Die Testpersonen konnten sich frei entscheiden, ob sie mit der rechten oder der linken Hand einen Knopf betätigen. Anhand einer vor ihren Augen abgespielten Buchstabenfolge sollten sie anschließend angeben, zu welchem Zeitpunkt gefühlsmäßig ihre Entscheidung gefallen war. Ziel des Experiments war es, herauszufinden, wo im Gehirn solche selbstbestimmten Entscheidungen entstehen und vor allem ob dies geschieht, bevor es uns bewusst wird. Bereits sieben Sekunden vor der bewussten Entscheidung konnten die Wissenschaftler aus der Aktivität des frontopolaren Kortex an der Stirnseite des Gehirns vorhersagen, welche Hand der Proband betätigen wird. Zwar ließ sich die Entscheidung der Probanden nicht mit Sicherheit voraussagen, die Häufigkeit richtiger Prognosen lag aber deutlich über dem Zufall. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Entscheidung schon zu einem gewissen Grad unbewusst angebahnt, aber noch nicht endgültig gefallen war. Nach der Vorbereitung des Entscheidungsprozesses im frontopolaren Kortex, werden die Informationen zur Ausführung der Tätigkeit und zur Festlegung des Handlungszeitpunkts in andere Hirnbereiche übermittelt.

Mit ihrer Studie untersuchten die Wissenschaftler Situationen, in denen eine Entscheidung zu einem selbst gewählten Zeitpunkt stattfindet. "Bisher hat die Forschung in der Regel Prozesse betrachtet, bei denen der Proband sich sofort entscheiden muss. Viele interessante Entscheidungen erfolgen aber in einem eigenen, selbstgewählten Tempo", erklärt Haynes. Die lange Zeitspanne, die seine Untersuchung umfasst, ist beispiellos. "Normalerweise untersucht man die Hirnaktivität einer Person, während sie eine Entscheidung trifft und nicht schon Sekunden vorher", sagt Haynes. "Dass selbstgewählte Entscheidungen vom Gehirn schon so früh angebahnt werden, hat man bisher nicht für möglich gehalten."

Schon vor über 20 Jahren ist es dem amerikanischen Neurophysiologen Benjamin Libet gelungen, ein Gehirnsignal, das sogenannte "Bereitschaftspotential" zu messen, das einer bewussten Entscheidung um einige hundert Millisekunden vorausgeht. Libets Experimente lösten eine heftige Debatte um die Willensfreiheit aus. Wenn Entscheidungsprozesse unbewusst ablaufen, so argumentierten einige Wissenschaftler, ist der freie Wille eine Illusion - das Gehirn entscheidet, nicht das "Ich". Andere hingegen bezweifelten die Aussagekraft der Daten, vor allem wegen der kurzen Zeitspanne zwischen Bereitschaftspotential und bewusster Entscheidung.

Da Haynes und seine Kollegen die Vorbereitung der Entscheidung über weit längere Zeiträume beobachteten, konnten sie diese Zweifel an Libets Experimenten nun aus dem Weg räumen. Einen endgültigen Beweis gegen die Existenz eines freien Willens sehen sie darin noch nicht. "Nach unseren Erkenntnissen werden Entscheidungen im Gehirn zwar unbewusst vorbereitet. Wir wissen aber noch nicht, wo sie endgültig getroffen werden. Vor allem wissen wir noch nicht, ob man sich entgegen einer vorgebahnten Entscheidung des Gehirns auch anders entscheiden kann", sagt Haynes.

[KW/BA]

Originalveröffentlichung:

Chun Siong Soon, Marcel Brass, Hans-Jochen Heinze & John-Dylan Haynes (2008):
Unconscious determinants of free decisions in the human brain
Nature Neuroscience, 13. April 2008

Monday, April 14, 2008

Wall Street is Really Predicated on Greed

(Commentary No. 230, April 1, 2008)

It is not I who is saying that Wall Street is really predicated on
greed, but Stephen Raphael. And who is Stephen Raphael? He is a former
member of the Board of Bear Stearns, the Wall Street bank that
collapsed last month. And where did Raphael say this? In an interview
with the Wall Street Journal, which is more or less the house journal
of Wall Street. And what was Raphael's point? It was to explain (or
was it to excuse?) the collapse of the firm. "This could happen to any
firm," he said.

Yes, indeed it could. And it did. Meanwhile, while this was happening,
the chairman of the firm, Jimmy Caynes, was nonchalantly playing
bridge in a tournament. Not too smart for a greedy banker. As a
result, he lost most of his personal fortune, and another greedy firm,
JPMorgan Chase, came in like a vulture and made a killing. Oh,
incidentally, some 14,000 employees of Bear Stearns are, or will soon
be, out of a job.

Is then capitalism nothing but greed? No, there are other things to
it, but greed plays a very big role. And greed, by definition, works
for some at the expense of others. So, some firms are going bankrupt
these days - on Wall Street, and elsewhere in the world - and others
are not. The United States as a country is going bankrupt, and others
are not. The United States doesn't call it that, but that is the truth
of it.

Is it always like this? No, not always. Just half the time. Let us
review how Wall Street and the United States got into this particular
disastrous corner. It all started out well - for Wall Street and for
the United States in 1945. The war was over. The war was won. And the
United States was the only industrial power whose factories were
intact, untouched by wartime damage. There were destroyed cities
elsewhere, and actual hunger in Europe and Asia.

The United States was set to do well, and it did do well, very well.
It could outproduce the world, and get the rewards. It made a deal
with the Soviet Union - we call it rhetorically Yalta - so that there
would be no nuclear wars that could really damage the United States.
And, at home, the big manufacturers made a deal with the big unions so
that there would be no destructive strikes to interfere with the
profitable production. Rosy times loomed, and the standard of living
went up dramatically. Actually, the years after the war proved to be
fairly rosy times for most of the world. It was the moment of the
greatest expansion of production, of profit, of population, and yes of
general welfare in the history of the capitalist world-economy. The
French called it the "thirty glorious years."

Must all good things come to an end? Well, cyclically, in the five
hundred years of the modern world-system, I fear this has always been
true. When everyone begins to cash in on economic expansion, the rate
of profit has to go down. Profit from production depends on relative
monopolization of the leading industries. But if too many countries
have steel factories or auto factories (the leading industries of the
time), there is too much competition. And, despite all the nonsensical
slogans, competition is not good for capitalists. It reduces the
profits.

And when profits get hit too hard, the world-system enters into one of
its periodic periods of stagnation. This happened circa 1970. And, in
case you hadn't noticed, things have not been rosy since then, despite
once again all the nonsensical slogans. What happens in a period of
worldwide economic stagnation? The factories begin to move out of the
erstwhile locales (like the United States, but also Germany, France,
Great Britain, and Japan) to other countries (like South Korea, India,
Brazil, and Taiwan) in search of lower costs of production. It seems
good for the new places of steel and auto production, but it means
layoffs in the old centers of production.

But runaway factories are not the whole story. What do big capitalists
do, if they want to make money, in times of lower profits from
production? They start to shift their money from productive
enterprises to financial enterprises. That is to say, they begin to
speculate. And, in a time of speculation, greed knows no limits. So we
have junk bonds and takeovers and subprime mortgages and hedge funds
and all those curious things with curious names. It seems that even
Robert Rubin, one of the really big people in the financial world,
admitted recently that he doesn't know what a "liquidity put" is.

The underlying story - from 1970 on - has been that of debt, greater
and greater debt. Corporations borrow, individuals borrow, states
borrow. They all live above their real incomes. And, if you're in a
position to borrow (it's called credit), you can live high on the hog,
as they say. But debts have a small downside. At some point, you're
expected to repay debts. If you don't, there is a "debt crisis" or a
"bankruptcy" or, if you're a country with a currency, a dramatic
decline in the exchange rate.

This is what we call a bubble. And if you blow up a balloon long
enough, no matter how good it feels, at some point the balloon bursts.
It is bursting now. And everyone is frightened, as well they might be.
When the bubble really bursts, it is really painful. The thing is, it
is usually more painful for some than for others, even if it is
painful for everyone.

At the moment, it might turn out to be most painful for the United
States - as a country, and for its capitalists, and above all for its
ordinary citizens. It seems the United States has been spending not
billions of dollars but trillions of dollars on some wars in the
Middle East it has been losing. And it seems that even the wealthiest
country in the world doesn't have in its coffers trillions of dollars.
So it has borrowed them. And it seems that its credit in 2008 is not
as good as it was in 1945. It seems that the creditors are today
reluctant to throw good money after bad. It seems that the United
States might be going bankrupt, like Bear Stearns.

Will the United States be bought out by China or by Qatar or by
Norway, or by a combination of all of them at $2 or even $10 a share?
What will happen to those very expensive toys that the United States
keeps buying, like military bases in a hundred countries, and those
airplanes and ships and superduper guns the United States constantly
orders to replace yesterday's toys? Who will feed the people on the
breadlines?

Come back next decade, and let me know.

by Immanuel Wallerstein

[Copyright by Immanuel Wallerstein, distributed by Agence Global. For
rights and permissions, including translations and posting to
non-commercial sites, and contact: rights@agenceglobal.com,
1.336.686.9002 or 1.336.286.6606. Permission is granted to download,
forward electronically, or e-mail to others, provided the essay
remains intact and the copyright note is displayed. To contact author,
write: immanuel.wallerstein@yale.edu. These commentaries, published
twice monthly, are intended to be reflections on the contemporary
world scene, as seen from the perspective not of the immediate
headlines but of the long term.]

Saturday, April 12, 2008

"Whose Century is the 21st Century?"

 In 1941, Henry Luce proclaimed the twentieth century the American century. And most analysts have agreed with him ever since. Of course, the twentieth century was more than merely the American century. It was the century of the decolonization of Asia and Africa. It was the century of the flourishing of both fascism and communism as political movements. And it was the century of both the Great Depression and the incredible, unprecedented expansion of the world-economy in the 25 years after the end of the Second World War.

But nonetheless, it was the American century. The United States became the unquestioned hegemonic power in the period 1945-1970 and shaped a world-system to its liking. The United States became the premier economic producer, the dominant political force, and the cultural center of the world-system. The United States, in short, ran the show, at least for a while.

Now, the United States is in visible decline. More and more analysts are willing to say this openly, even if the official line of the U.S. establishment is to deny this vigorously, just as a certain portion of the world left insists on the continued hegemony of the United States. But clear-minded realists on all sides recognize that the U.S. star is growing dimmer. The question that underlies all serious prognostication is then, whose century is the twenty-first century?

Of course, it is only 2006, and a bit early to answer this question with any sense of certainty. But nonetheless, political leaders everywhere are making bets on the answer and shaping their policies accordingly. If we rephrase the question to ask merely what may the world look like in, for example, 2025, we may at least be able to say something intelligent.

There are basically three sets of answers to the question of what the world will look like in 2025. The first is that the United States will enjoy one last fling, a revival of power, and will continue to rule the roost in the absence of any serious military contender. The second is that China will displace the United States as the world's superpower. The third is that the world will become an arena of anarchic and relatively unpredictable multi-polar disorder. Let us examine the plausibility of each of these three predictions.

The United States on top? There are three reasons to doubt this. The first, an economic reason, is the fragility of the U.S. dollar as the sole reserve currency in the world-economy. The dollar is sustained now by massive infusions of bond purchases by Japan, China, Korea, and other countries. It is highly unlikely that this will continue. When the dollar falls dramatically, it may momentarily increase the sale of manufactured goods, but the United States will lose its command on world wealth and its ability to expand the deficit without serious immediate penalty. The standard of living will fall and there will be an influx of new reserve currencies, including the euro and the yen.

The second reason is military. Both Afghanistan and especially Iraq have demonstrated in the last few years that it is not enough to have airplanes, ships, and bombs. A nation must also have a very large land force to overcome local resistance. The United States does not have such a force, and will not have one, due to internal political reasons. Hence, it is doomed to lose such wars.

The third reason is political. Nations throughout the world are drawing the logical conclusion that they can now defy the United States politically. Take the latest instance: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which brings together Russia, China, and four Central Asian republics, is about to expand to include India, Pakistan, Mongolia, and Iran. Iran has been invited at the very moment that the United States is trying to organize a worldwide campaign against the regime. The Boston Globe has called this correctly "an anti-Bush alliance" and a "tectonic shift in geopolitics."

Will China then emerge on top by 2025? To be sure, China is doing quite well economically, is expanding its military force considerably, and is even beginning to play a serious political role in regions far from its borders. China will undoubtedly be much stronger in 2025; however, China faces three problems that it must overcome.

The first problem is internal. China is not politically stabilized. The one-party structure has the force of economic success and nationalist sentiment in its favor. But it faces the discontent of about half of the population that has been left behind, and the discontent of the other half about the limits on their internal political freedom.

China's second problem concerns the world-economy. The incredible expansion of consumption in China (along with that of India) will take its toll both on the world's ecology and on the possibilities of capital accumulation. Too many consumers and too many producers will have severe repercussions on worldwide profit levels.

The third problem lies with China's neighbors. Were China to accomplish the reintegration of Taiwan, help arrange the reunification of the Koreas, and come to terms (psychologically and politically) with Japan, there might be an East Asian unified geopolitical structure that could assume a hegemonic position.

All three of these problems can be overcome, but it will not be easy. And the odds that China can overcome these difficulties by 2025 are uncertain.

The last scenario is that of multi-polar anarchy and wild economic fluctuations. Given the inability of maintaining an old hegemonic power, the difficulty of establishing a new one, and the crisis in worldwide capital accumulation, this third scenario appears the most likely.

Commentary No. 186, June 1, 2006

by Immanuel Wallerstein

[Copyright by Immanuel Wallerstein, distributed by Agence Global. For rights and permissions, including translations and posting to non-commercial sites, and contact: rights@agenceglobal.com, 1.336.686.9002 or 1.336.286.6606. Permission is granted to download, forward electronically, or e-mail to others, provided the essay remains intact and the copyright note is displayed. To contact author, write: immanuel.wallerstein@yale.edu.

These commentaries, published twice monthly, are intended to be reflections on the contemporary world scene, as seen from the perspective not of the immediate headlines but of the long term.]