Sunday, August 25, 2019

Fire Forecast Amazon Region


The fire season in the southern Amazon runs from June to November, with peak burning activity in September along the eastern and southern Amazon forest frontiers, a swath sometimes referred to as the "arc of deforestation". Year-to-year variability in fires is strongly linked to climate anomalies, and both the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation influence drought conditions and the risk of fires across the southern Amazon.


2019 Fire Season Updates:

August 24th, 2019
Figure: Cumulative active fire detections through 8/22/2019 from MODIS and VIIRS confirm that 2019 is the highest fire year since 2012 (the start of the VIIRS record) across the seven states that comprise the Brazilian Amazon. In addition, fires in 2019 are more intense than previous years, measured in terms of fire radiative power, consistent with the observed increase in deforestation

Saturday, August 3, 2019

July equalled, and maybe surpassed, the hottest month in recorded history


According to new data from the World Meteorological Organization and Copernicus Climate Change Programme, July at least equalled, if not surpassed, the hottest month in recorded history. This follows the warmest ever June on record.

The data from the Copernicus Climate Change Programme, run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is fed into the UN system by WMO. The figures show that, based on the first 29 days of the month, July 2019 will be on par with, and possibly marginally warmer than the previous warmest July, in 2016, which was also the warmest month ever.

The latest figures are particularly significant because July 2016 was during one of the strongest occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon, which contributes to heightened global temperatures. Unlike 2016, 2019 has not been marked by a strong El Niño.

"We have always lived through hot summers. But this is not the summer of our youth. This is not your grandfather's summer," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, announcing the data in New York.

July 2019 will be around 1.2°C warmer than the pre-industrial era, according to the data.

"All of this means that we are on track for  the period from 2015 to 2019 to be the five hottest years on record. This year alone, we have seen temperature records shattered from New Delhi to Anchorage, from Paris to Santiago, from Adelaide and to the Arctic Circle. If we do not take action on climate change now, these extreme weather events are just the tip of the iceberg. And, indeed, the iceberg is also rapidly melting," Mr Guterres said.

"Preventing irreversible climate disruption is the race of our lives, and for our lives. It is a race that we can and must win," he underlined.

Sunday, June 30, 2019

Free trade or environment

By Serge Halimi, president and editorial director of Le Monde diplomatique

Europe's Greens revived the old debate on the political positioning of their movement when they won 10% of seats in the new European Parliament. Is it leftwing, as most of its alliances to date suggest? Or is it neoliberal, given that several of its former leaders, including Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Pascal Canfin and Pascal Durand, have since joined forces with Emmanuel Macron, and that some coalitions in Germany include rightwing parties as well as the Greens?

At first glance, neoliberalism and ecology seem like an odd match. In 2003 Milton Friedman, the father of neoliberalism, said, 'The environment is a greatly overstated problem ... We cause pollution just by breathing. We can't close all the factories on the grounds that it will stop CO2 emissions. We might as well go and hang ourselves right away' (1). A decade earlier, Gary Becker, another winner of the Nobel for economics and outspoken critic of what is now called 'punitive ecology', wrote that labour legislation and environmental protection were now excessive in most developed countries. He hoped that free trade would curb some of the excesses by forcing everyone to stay competitive with imports from developing countries (2).

It's understandable therefore that fears for the future of the planet have rehabilitated the long-reviled concept of 'protectionism'. In France, during a campaign debate in the run-up to the European election, the leaders of the Socialist and Green electoral lists even called for 'protectionism at the borders of the European Union' in almost the same terms as Marine Le Pen (3). One can imagine the likely outcome of such a change of course, given that free trade is the EU's historical founding principle, as well as the economic engine of Germany, its biggest economy.

Everyone knows that the now universal praise for local production and local consumption and on-site waste processing is incompatible with a production and trade model based on 'value chains', with a steady to-and-fro of container ships on which a product or its components will 'cross the Pacific three or even four times before showing up on retail shelves' (4).

There will be plenty of opportunities in the next few weeks for the Greens to follow up their rejection of an environmentally destructive free-trade model with practical action. MEPs are due to ratify — or let's hope reject — free trade deals with four Latin American countries, including Brazil and Argentina (the EU-Mercosur agreement), and with Canada (CETA) and Tunisia (ALECA). It will then be clear whether or not a 'green tide' is really sweeping Europe.

https://mondediplo.com/2019/07/01edito


Sunday, May 19, 2019

Plundering Africa

Aquaculture provides seafood in a warming world. But this global industry is taking a staple called sardinella from the mouths of people who need it the most.

From the shrimp ponds of China's river deltas to the salmon cages of Norway's fjords, the industry thrives by feeding fish to other fish. Its needs are so voracious, roughly 20 percent of the world's wild-caught fish don't even go near anyone's plate but are instead ground up to make fishmeal.


Saturday, May 4, 2019

Why don't CO2 and temperature correlate perfectly?



This episode discusses the factors that explain why carbon dioxide and temeperature don't correlate perfectly. 0:00-1:27 -Global Temperature and CO2 graphical representation -Decade to Decade time scale variability 1:28-4:06 -Graphs of isolated scenarios for temperature change (Anthropogenic greenhouse gases, Anthropogenic Aerosols, Volcanic Aerosols, and Solar radiation) -Graphs of all influences combined 4:07-7:34 -Internal Variability (changes in ocean heat absorption) -Fictional Example of isolated Internal Variability and example with combined Greenhouse Gases