ΝΑΤΟ σε αγώνα για τον Πλανήτη γη - NATO in a strungle for the world - Die NATO im Kampf um die Welt

Εδώ ταιριάζει απόλυτα μια βραδιά κινηματογράφου με την ταινία του Στάνλεϊ Κιούμπρικ με τον Πίτερ Σέλερς: S.O.S. Πεντάγωνο Καλεί Μόσχα (Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb).

ΝΑΤΟ σε αγώνα για τον Πλανήτη γη

Λίγες μέρες πριν την συνάντηση κορυφής στο Βουκουρέστι παρουσιάζεται ένα άρθρο στρατηγικής με τον τίτλο: "προς μια μεγάλη στρατηγική για έναν αβέβαιο κόσμο" το οποίο γράφτηκε από 5 πρώην αρχηγούς των ενόπλων δυνάμεων Γερμανό στρατηγό Κλαυς Ναουμαν, Αμερικανό στρατηγό Τζον Σαλικασβιλι, Βρετανό στρατάρχη Λόρδο Πίτερ Ιν τον γάλλο ναύαρχο Ζακ Λανξαντ και τον Ολλανδό στρατηγό Χενκ βαν ντερ Μπρέεμεν, θελει το ΝΑΤΟ στην πλευρά των ΗΠΑ και της ΕΕ σαν μια επιθετικά προσδιορισμένη συμμαχία. Το μέχρι τώρα διεθνές δίκαιο – πάνω από όλα η αρχή της εθνικής κυριαρχίας – πρέπει να μπει στην άκρη και να αντικατασταθεί από ένα κοινό δίκαιο, το όποιο θα οριστεί από την δύση. Οι συγγραφείς εμμένουν επιπλέον σε μια στρατηγική του πρώτου ατομικού κτυπήματος.

Die NATO im Kampf um die Welt,

Harald Neuber, Telepolis, 28.03.2008

"……Vor dem Gipfeltreffen der Allianz in Bukarest fordert ein Strategiepapier eine radikale Umorientierung - und atomare Erstschläge

Wenige Tage vor dem NATO-Gipfel in Bukarest (1) sorgt ein neues Strategiepapier für Aufsehen. Die Studie mit dem Titel Towards a Grand Strategy for an Uncertain World (2) (etwa: Zu einer Gesamtstrategie für eine unsichere Welt) wurde von gleich fünf ehemaligen Stabschefs des Militärbündnisses verfasst und birgt brisante Vorschläge. Der deutsche General a. D. Klaus Naumann (3), US-General John Shalikashvili, der britische Feldmarschall Lord Peter Inge, der französische Admiral Jacques Lanxade und der niederländische General Henk van den Breemen wollen die NATO an der Seite der USA und der EU zu einem offensiv ausgerichteten Militärbündnis machen. Das bisherige Völkerrecht - vor allem das Prinzip der staatlichen Souveränität - soll beiseite geschoben und durch ein Gewohnheitsrecht ersetzt werden, das vom Westen definiert wird. Die Autoren bestehen zudem auf eine Strategie atomarer Erstschläge.

Das 152-seitige Papier, das früher geäußerte Ideen aufgreift ( Die Nato soll Pipelines und Energieressourcen sichern (4)), kursiert seit Anfang Januar in Brüssler EU-Kreisen. Obwohl einige wenige Medien wie Die Zeit (5) oder The Guardian (6) über das Dokument berichteten, ist die Brisanz der Vorschläge offenbar nur wenigen politischen Entscheidungsträgern klar. Denn die Militärs fordern nicht nur eine grundsätzliche, langfristige und irreversible Neuausrichtung der NATO von einem Defensiv- zu einem Offensivbündnis. Auch die Einsatzgründe verschieben sich. So soll die Bedrohung der geopolitischen Dominanz des Westens und seiner Kultur künftig ebenso als Kriegsgrund dienen wie die Sicherung von Energieressourcen. Das Papier bestätigt die schlimmsten Befürchtungen der geopolitischen Gegenspieler der NATO und bedeutete - würde es umgesetzt - das Ende des bisherigen Völkerrechtes. ……"

The whole article here:

Telepolis Artikel-URL: http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/27/27573/1.html

WSJ: New Limits to Growth Revive Malthusian Fears

Ακόμα και Wall Street Journal αρχίζει να αναρωτιέται για το αν πραγματικά υπάρχουν όρια στην ανάπτυξη.

Το αναφερόμενο βιβλίο υπάρχει και σε καινούργια έκδοση: " The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update " (έχω την καινούργια έκδοση)

Ενδείκνυται για όσους ενδιαφέρονται για μια μη γραμμική θεώρηση του συστήματος

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120613138379155707.html

Wall Street Journal By JUSTIN LAHART, PATRICK BARTA and ANDREW BATSON

"… Dennis Meadows, one of the authors of "The Limits to Growth," says the book was too optimistic in one respect. The authors assumed that if humans stopped harming the environment, it would recover slowly. Today, he says, some climate-change models suggest that once tipping points are passed, environmental catastrophe may be inevitable even "if you quit damaging the environment."

One danger is that governments, rather than searching for global solutions to resource constraints, will concentrate on grabbing share.

China has been funding development in Africa, a move some U.S. officials see as a way for it to gain access to timber, oil and other resources. India, once a staunch supporter of the democracy movement in military-run Myanmar, has inked trade agreements with the natural-resource rich country. The U.S., European Union, Russia and China are all vying for the favor of natural-gas-abundant countries in politically unstable Central Asia.

Competition for resources can get ugly. A record drought in the Southeast intensified a dispute between Alabama, Georgia and Florida over water from a federal reservoir outside Atlanta. A long-running fight over rights to the Cauvery River between the Indian states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu led to 25 deaths in 1991.

Economists Edward Miguel of the University of California at Berkeley and Shanker Satyanath and Ernest Sergenti of New York University have found that declines in rainfall are associated with civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Sierra Leone, for example, which saw a sharp drop in rainfall in 1990, plunged into civil war in 1991….."

Compressed Air Car

Αυτοκίνητο με μηχανή πεπιεσμένου αέρα (με χειροκίνητη τρόμπα για παράγωγη ενέργειας σε περίπτωση ανάγκης)

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/03/19/new-york-2008-air-car-in-the-house-starting-thursday/

''The new MDI car is one in a series of vehicles to be developed by MDI for production in various markets throughout the world. The vehicle is powered by the Compressed Air Engine (CAE) invented by Guy Negre, CEO and founder of MDI. Compressed air vehicles feature zero tailpipe emissions and high energy efficiency and represent an affordable, eco-friendly alternative to conventional gasoline powered vehicles and hybrids.''

Structured investment vehicle (SIV)

Η αλλιώς, πως να κατασκευάσεις μια φούσκα που να μην φαίνεται στο βιβλίο κανενός.....
from: http://moneyterms.co.uk/siv/

A structured investment vehicle (SIV) is a special purpose vehicle that buys long term bonds and other fixed income securities, funding this with by issuing short or medium term debt such as commercial paper. The securities an SIV buys are often mortgage books or some other from of asset backed security.

This should be profitable because of the shape of the yield curve. Although this is often described as arbitrage it is not because it is uncovered.

SIVs are also called conduits because they create a channel through which the long term debt they invest in can be funded by short term debt. They have also proved to be a conduit through which banks have bought back mortgage debt that they had apparently off-loaded through securitisation — although the banks that buy may not be those that sold, the risk comes back into the banking system.

SIVs can be very profitable because they are highly geared and returns on the comparatively small amount of equity can therefore be very high.

The business model (borrow short term, lend long term) is very similar to that of a bank, but by conducting its business through capital markets (rather than taking deposits) and being an off-shore entity it escapes the regulation that banks and finance companies are subject to. They can also often be kept off balance-sheet, escaping indirect restraints through regulation of the banks that set them up.

The Collapse of The Roman Empire

From: COMPLEXITY, PROBLEM SOLVING, AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES, by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996 (http://dieoff.com/page134.htm)

The Collapse of The Roman Empire
One outcome of diminishing returns to complexity is illustrated by the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. As a solar-energy based society which taxed heavily, the empire had little fiscal reserve. When confronted with military crises, Roman Emperors often had to respond by debasing the silver currency (Figure 4.2) and trying to raise new funds. In the third century A.D. constant crises forced the emperors to double the size of the army and increase both the size and complexity of the government. To pay for this, masses of worthless coins were produced, supplies were commandeered from peasants, and the level of taxation was made even more oppressive (up to two-thirds of the net yield after payment of rent). Inflation devastated the economy. Lands and population were surveyed across the empire and assessed for taxes. Communities were held corporately liable for any unpaid amounts. While peasants went hungry or sold their children into slavery, massive fortifications were built, the size of the bureaucracy doubled, provincial administration was made more complex, large subsidies in gold were paid to Germanic tribes, and new imperial cities and courts were established. With rising taxes, marginal lands were abandoned and population declined. Peasants could no longer support large families. To avoid oppressive civic obligations, the wealthy fled from cities to establish self-sufficient rural estates. Ultimately, to escape taxation, peasants voluntarily entered into feudal relationships with these land holders. A few wealthy families came to own much of the land in the western empire, and were able to defy the imperial government. The empire came to sustain itself by consuming its capital resources; producing lands and peasant population (Jones 1964, 1974; Wickham 1984; Tainter 1988, 1994b). The Roman Empire provides history's best-documented example of how increasing complexity to resolve problems leads to higher costs, diminishing returns, alienation of a support population, economic weakness, and collapse. In the end it could no longer afford to solve the problems of its own existence.



Figure 4.2. Debasement of the Roman silver currency, 0-269 A.D. (after Tainter 1994b with modifications). The chart shows grams of silver per denarius (the basic silver coin) from 0 to 237 A.D., and per 1/2 denarius from 238-269 A.D. (when the denarius was replaced by a larger coin tariffed at two denarii).

Population, Resources, and Industrialism
The fate of the Roman Empire is not the unavoidable destiny of complex societies. It is useful to discuss a historical case that turned out quite differently. In one of the most interesting works of economic history, Richard Wilkinson (1973) showed that in late-and post-medieval England, population growth and deforestation stimulated economic development, and were at least partly responsible for the Industrial Revolution. Major increases in population, at around 1300, 1600, and in the late 18th century, led to intensification in agriculture and industry. As forests were cut to provide agricultural land and fuel for a growing population, England's heating, cooking, and manufacturing needs could no longer be met by burning wood. Coal came to be increasingly important, although it was adopted reluctantly. Coal was costlier to obtain and distribute than wood, and restricted in its occurrence. It required a new, costly distribution system. As coal gained importance in the economy the most accessible deposits were depleted. Mines had to be sunk ever deeper, until groundwater came to be a problem. Ultimately, the steam engine was developed and put to use pumping water from mines. With the development of a coal-based economy, a distribution system, and the steam engine, several of the most important technical elements of the Industrial Revolution were in place. Industrialism, that great generator of economic well-being, came in part from steps to counteract the consequences of resource depletion, supposedly a generator of poverty and collapse. Yet it was a system of increasing complexity that did not take long to show diminishing returns in some sectors. This point will be raised again later.

Το τέλος του νεοφιλελεύθερου πειράματος

Οι ενδείξεις πυκνώνουν ότι βρισκόμαστε στα τελικά στάδια του κύκλου που άρχισε πριν 30 χρονια περίπου (Harvey 2003) και θα ολοκληρωθεί μέσα στην επόμενη 5ετια (Wallerstein 1996). Η τελευταία φούσκα είναι το έναυσμα του τέλους αυτού του 'κύκλου' και η αρχή μιας καινούργιας περιόδου η οποία σε σχέση με αυτήν του 1929 θα είναι πιο δύσκολη καθώς θα πρέπει να αντιμετωπίσουμε τρία νέα προβλήματα:

1) Ενεργειακή ασφάλεια (peak oil)
2) Αλλαγή του κλίματος
3) Διάδοση των πυρηνικών όπλων

οι συνέπειες των δυο πρώτων έχουν γίνει ήδη αισθητές: 2 πετρελαϊκοί ζεστοί πόλεμοι στο Ιράκ και ένας κρύος που συμβαίνει αυτή την στιγμή μεταξύ Αμερικής-Κίνας στην Αφρική, εξαφάνιση τεράστιας ποσότητας πάγου στον βόρειο πόλο, ξηρασίες, αύξηση της συχνότητας καυσώνων, κλπ. Το τρίτο πρόβλημα , η διάδοση των πυρηνικών, είναι το πιο επικίνδυνο, καθώς από την μια πλευρά υπάρχει μια από-ευαισθητοποίηση του κόσμου σε αυτό το θέμα και από την άλλη η απόκτηση πυρηνικών όπλων φαίνεται να είναι το μόνο αποτελεσματικό deterrent ενάντια στην πολίτικη των 'preemptive'-wars των ΗΠΑ.

-Peak oil primer. Energy Bulletin. http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
-David Harvey 2007. A Brief History of Neoliberalism
-Immanuel Maurice Wallerstein 1996. The Age of Transition: Trajectory of the World System, 1945-2025: Trajectory of the World-System 1945-2025.

PS. Ενδιαφέρομαι για τους τομείς: complex-systems, physics, cognitive-science/AI, neuroscience, evolutionary biology, και οχι για ιδεολογίες (εκτός αν είναι από εξελικτική σκοπιά). Γ'αυτό ανταλλαγή απόψεων και συζήτηση ναι, λαϊκισμούς και θρησκοληψίες όχι.